Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins
Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins head-to-head
Detroit Lions 52% to win. The biggest signal favoring Lions:
- ELO Rating. Dolphins ELO 1408 vs Lions ELO 1544 (diff: -136)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: DET 47% (−5)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DET 53% (+1)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Lions at Dolphins
The Lions visit the Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL in NFL regular season Week 9 action.
Our model gives the Lions a 52% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Dolphins to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Lions (medium): Dolphins ELO 1408 vs Lions ELO 1544 (diff: -136)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Dolphins (low): Dolphins are 0-2 at home this season; Lions are 1-2 on the road
- Turnover Differential is neutral: Dolphins turnover differential (+0) vs Lions (+0)
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors Detroit Lions
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Miami Dolphins
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Lions
Dolphins
Learn About Our Analysis
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NFL Win Probability
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More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Miami Dolphins
- Previous game56%CIN win probability
- Next game58%IND win probability
Detroit Lions
- Previous game51%DET win probability
- Next game58%DET win probability
Other Week 9 games
- 59%JAX win probability
- 53%CIN win probability
- 64%KC win probability
- 62%PHI win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Dolphins has a 48% win probability, while Lions has a 52% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL.