MLB weekly recap: week of 2026-07-06 (2026)
Hit rate this week: 52% across 98 games; season-to-date: 54%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 57% — final WSH 3–HOU 6
- Home Field Advantage (favors WSH)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox at Angels Mon, Jul 6 | LAA 55% • BOS 45% | LAA 5–BOS 7 | Miss |
| Phillies at Royals Mon, Jul 6 | KC 55% • PHI 45% | KC 15–PHI 1 | Hit |
| Yankees at Rays Mon, Jul 6 | TB 55% • NYY 45% | TB 1–NYY 5 | Miss |
| Astros at Nationals Mon, Jul 6 | WSH 57% • HOU 43% | WSH 12–HOU 11 | Hit |
| Mets at Braves Mon, Jul 6 | ATL 55% • NYM 45% | ATL 6–NYM 7 | Miss |
| Brewers at Cardinals Mon, Jul 6 | STL 52% • MIL 48% | STL 3–MIL 4 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Padres Tue, Jul 7 | SD 57% • ARI 43% | SD 0–ARI 8 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Giants Tue, Jul 7 | SF 54% • TOR 46% | SF 10–TOR 1 | Hit |
| Rockies at Dodgers Tue, Jul 7 | LAD 55% • COL 45% | LAD 8–COL 7 | Hit |
| Brewers at Cardinals Tue, Jul 7 | STL 52% • MIL 48% | STL 3–MIL 4 | Miss |
| Cubs at Orioles Tue, Jul 7 | BAL 54% • CHC 46% | BAL 2–CHC 5 | Miss |
| Mariners at Marlins Tue, Jul 7 | MIA 56% • SEA 44% | MIA 6–SEA 5 | Hit |
| Yankees at Rays Tue, Jul 7 | TB 55% • NYY 45% | TB 6–NYY 4 | Hit |
| Braves at Pirates Tue, Jul 7 | PIT 63% • ATL 37% | PIT 12–ATL 4 | Hit |
| Athletics at Tigers Tue, Jul 7 | DET 54% • OAK 46% | DET 6–OAK 2 | Hit |
| Astros at Nationals Tue, Jul 7 | WSH 57% • HOU 43% | WSH 3–HOU 6 | Miss |
| Phillies at Reds Tue, Jul 7 | CIN 57% • PHI 43% | CIN 1–PHI 4 | Miss |
| Royals at Mets Tue, Jul 7 | NYM 49% • KC 51% | NYM 12–KC 16 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Chicago White Sox Tue, Jul 7 | CWS 57% • BOS 43% | CWS 1–BOS 8 | Miss |
| Guardians at Twins Tue, Jul 7 | MIN 55% • CLE 45% | MIN 3–CLE 1 | Hit |
| Brewers at Cardinals Tue, Jul 7 | STL 52% • MIL 48% | STL 2–MIL 10 | Miss |
| Angels at Rangers Wed, Jul 8 | TEX 58% • LAA 42% | TEX 8–LAA 3 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Padres Wed, Jul 8 | SD 57% • ARI 43% | SD 4–ARI 1 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Giants Wed, Jul 8 | SF 54% • TOR 46% | SF 3–TOR 9 | Miss |
| Rockies at Dodgers Wed, Jul 8 | LAD 55% • COL 45% | LAD 3–COL 4 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Giants Wed, Jul 8 | SF 54% • TOR 46% | SF 0–TOR 10 | Miss |
| Cubs at Orioles Wed, Jul 8 | BAL 54% • CHC 46% | BAL 7–CHC 9 | Miss |
| Braves at Pirates Wed, Jul 8 | PIT 55% • ATL 45% | PIT 0–ATL 3 | Miss |
| Athletics at Tigers Wed, Jul 8 | DET 54% • OAK 46% | DET 6–OAK 1 | Hit |
| Yankees at Rays Wed, Jul 8 | TB 55% • NYY 45% | TB 3–NYY 0 | Hit |
| Mariners at Marlins Wed, Jul 8 | MIA 56% • SEA 44% | MIA 2–SEA 0 | Hit |
| Astros at Nationals Wed, Jul 8 | WSH 57% • HOU 43% | WSH 8–HOU 2 | Hit |
| Phillies at Reds Wed, Jul 8 | CIN 55% • PHI 45% | CIN 11–PHI 5 | Hit |
| Royals at Mets Wed, Jul 8 | NYM 55% • KC 45% | NYM 6–KC 2 | Hit |
| Guardians at Twins Wed, Jul 8 | MIN 55% • CLE 45% | MIN 6–CLE 5 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Chicago White Sox Wed, Jul 8 | CWS 55% • BOS 45% | CWS 0–BOS 5 | Miss |
| Brewers at Cardinals Wed, Jul 8 | STL 52% • MIL 48% | STL 5–MIL 1 | Hit |
| Angels at Rangers Thu, Jul 9 | TEX 56% • LAA 44% | TEX 1–LAA 13 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Padres Thu, Jul 9 | SD 57% • ARI 43% | SD 10–ARI 4 | Hit |
| Rockies at Dodgers Thu, Jul 9 | LAD 55% • COL 45% | LAD 4–COL 3 | Hit |
| Braves at Pirates Thu, Jul 9 | PIT 55% • ATL 45% | PIT 5–ATL 10 | Miss |
| Royals at Mets Thu, Jul 9 | NYM 55% • KC 45% | NYM 7–KC 3 | Hit |
| Yankees at Rays Thu, Jul 9 | TB 55% • NYY 45% | TB 4–NYY 12 | Miss |
| Cubs at Orioles Thu, Jul 9 | BAL 54% • CHC 46% | BAL 3–CHC 2 | Hit |
| Guardians at Twins Thu, Jul 9 | MIN 55% • CLE 45% | MIN 2–CLE 5 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Chicago White Sox Thu, Jul 9 | CWS 55% • BOS 45% | CWS 1–BOS 2 | Miss |
| Mariners at Marlins Thu, Jul 9 | MIA 56% • SEA 44% | MIA 8–SEA 4 | Hit |
| Athletics at Tigers Thu, Jul 9 | DET 54% • OAK 46% | DET 4–OAK 1 | Hit |
| Phillies at Reds Thu, Jul 9 | CIN 55% • PHI 45% | CIN 0–PHI 1 | Miss |
| Brewers at Cardinals Thu, Jul 9 | STL 52% • MIL 48% | STL 4–MIL 8 | Miss |
| Angels at Rangers Fri, Jul 10 | TEX 56% • LAA 44% | TEX 7–LAA 6 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Padres Fri, Jul 10 | SD 57% • ARI 43% | SD 1–ARI 3 | Miss |
| Rockies at Giants Fri, Jul 10 | SF 61% • COL 39% | SF 8–COL 2 | Hit |
| Phillies at Tigers Fri, Jul 10 | DET 61% • PHI 39% | DET 10–PHI 2 | Hit |
| Yankees at Nationals Fri, Jul 10 | WSH 57% • NYY 43% | WSH 3–NYY 5 | Miss |
| Royals at Orioles Fri, Jul 10 | BAL 55% • KC 45% | BAL 5–KC 3 | Hit |
| Cubs at Reds Fri, Jul 10 | CIN 55% • CHC 45% | CIN 4–CHC 0 | Hit |
| Mariners at Rays Fri, Jul 10 | TB 56% • SEA 44% | TB 7–SEA 2 | Hit |
| Guardians at Marlins Fri, Jul 10 | MIA 54% • CLE 46% | MIA 2–CLE 3 | Miss |
| Athletics at Chicago White Sox Fri, Jul 10 | CWS 55% • OAK 45% | CWS 14–OAK 1 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Mets Fri, Jul 10 | NYM 55% • BOS 45% | NYM 2–BOS 6 | Miss |
| Astros at Rangers Sat, Jul 11 | TEX 53% • HOU 47% | TEX 7–HOU 3 | Hit |
| Angels at Twins Sat, Jul 11 | MIN 56% • LAA 44% | MIN 3–LAA 4 | Miss |
| Braves at Cardinals Sat, Jul 11 | STL 54% • ATL 46% | STL 2–ATL 1 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Padres Sat, Jul 11 | SD 54% • TOR 46% | SD 3–TOR 5 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Dodgers Sat, Jul 11 | LAD 57% • ARI 43% | LAD 3–ARI 9 | Miss |
| Rockies at Giants Sat, Jul 11 | SF 55% • COL 45% | SF 3–COL 4 | Miss |
| Brewers at Pirates Sat, Jul 11 | PIT 54% • MIL 46% | PIT 7–MIL 6 | Hit |
| Athletics at Chicago White Sox Sat, Jul 11 | CWS 55% • OAK 45% | CWS 1–OAK 0 | Hit |
| Angels at Twins Sat, Jul 11 | MIN 56% • LAA 44% | MIN 5–LAA 3 | Hit |
| Rockies at Giants Sat, Jul 11 | SF 55% • COL 45% | SF 4–COL 2 | Hit |
| Yankees at Nationals Sat, Jul 11 | WSH 55% • NYY 45% | WSH 2–NYY 4 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Mets Sat, Jul 11 | NYM 55% • BOS 45% | NYM 0–BOS 4 | Miss |
| Guardians at Marlins Sat, Jul 11 | MIA 54% • CLE 46% | MIA 1–CLE 4 | Miss |
| Mariners at Rays Sat, Jul 11 | TB 56% • SEA 44% | TB 6–SEA 1 | Hit |
| Brewers at Pirates Sat, Jul 11 | PIT 54% • MIL 46% | PIT 3–MIL 2 | Hit |
| Phillies at Tigers Sat, Jul 11 | DET 55% • PHI 45% | DET 2–PHI 4 | Miss |
| Astros at Rangers Sat, Jul 11 | TEX 55% • HOU 45% | TEX 3–HOU 9 | Miss |
| Royals at Orioles Sat, Jul 11 | BAL 55% • KC 45% | BAL 6–KC 1 | Hit |
| Cubs at Reds Sat, Jul 11 | CIN 55% • CHC 45% | CIN 3–CHC 5 | Miss |
| Braves at Cardinals Sat, Jul 11 | STL 54% • ATL 46% | STL 4–ATL 1 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Padres Sun, Jul 12 | SD 55% • TOR 45% | SD 8–TOR 7 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Dodgers Sun, Jul 12 | LAD 55% • ARI 45% | LAD 2–ARI 9 | Miss |
| Brewers at Pirates Sun, Jul 12 | PIT 54% • MIL 46% | PIT 14–MIL 5 | Hit |
| Yankees at Nationals Sun, Jul 12 | WSH 55% • NYY 45% | WSH 3–NYY 5 | Miss |
| Royals at Orioles Sun, Jul 12 | BAL 55% • KC 45% | BAL 8–KC 2 | Hit |
| Phillies at Tigers Sun, Jul 12 | DET 55% • PHI 45% | DET 0–PHI 5 | Miss |
| Cubs at Reds Sun, Jul 12 | CIN 55% • CHC 45% | CIN 4–CHC 8 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Mets Sun, Jul 12 | NYM 55% • BOS 45% | NYM 2–BOS 3 | Miss |
| Mariners at Rays Sun, Jul 12 | TB 56% • SEA 44% | TB 2–SEA 8 | Miss |
| Guardians at Marlins Sun, Jul 12 | MIA 54% • CLE 46% | MIA 2–CLE 5 | Miss |
| Athletics at Chicago White Sox Sun, Jul 12 | CWS 55% • OAK 45% | CWS 9–OAK 1 | Hit |
| Angels at Twins Sun, Jul 12 | MIN 56% • LAA 44% | MIN 4–LAA 2 | Hit |
| Braves at Cardinals Sun, Jul 12 | STL 54% • ATL 46% | STL 3–ATL 4 | Miss |
| Astros at Rangers Sun, Jul 12 | TEX 55% • HOU 45% | TEX 6–HOU 5 | Hit |
| Rockies at Giants Sun, Jul 12 | SF 55% • COL 45% | SF 3–COL 1 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Padres Sun, Jul 12 | SD 55% • TOR 45% | SD 5–TOR 4 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Dodgers Sun, Jul 12 | LAD 55% • ARI 45% | LAD 3–ARI 5 | Miss |