MLB weekly recap: week of 2026-06-29 (2026)
Hit rate this week: 47% across 93 games; season-to-date: 54%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 63% — final CHC 1–STL 17
- Rest Days (favors CHC)
- Home Field Advantage (favors CHC)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox at Orioles Mon, Jun 29 | BAL 55% • CWS 45% | BAL 2–CWS 8 | Miss |
| Pirates at Phillies Mon, Jun 29 | PHI 54% • PIT 46% | PHI 7–PIT 11 | Miss |
| Rangers at Guardians Mon, Jun 29 | CLE 55% • TEX 45% | CLE 3–TEX 6 | Miss |
| Tigers at Yankees Mon, Jun 29 | NYY 49% • DET 51% | NYY 3–DET 7 | Hit |
| Mets at Blue Jays Mon, Jun 29 | TOR 55% • NYM 45% | TOR 2–NYM 1 | Hit |
| Nationals at Red Sox Mon, Jun 29 | BOS 45% • WSH 55% | BOS 6–WSH 3 | Miss |
| Reds at Brewers Mon, Jun 29 | MIL 57% • CIN 43% | MIL 5–CIN 3 | Hit |
| Padres at Cubs Tue, Jun 30 | CHC 53% • SD 47% | CHC 3–SD 2 | Hit |
| Twins at Astros Tue, Jun 30 | HOU 55% • MIN 45% | HOU 4–MIN 5 | Miss |
| Marlins at Rockies Tue, Jun 30 | COL 55% • MIA 45% | COL 7–MIA 10 | Miss |
| Angels at Mariners Tue, Jun 30 | SEA 55% • LAA 45% | SEA 6–LAA 2 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Athletics Tue, Jun 30 | OAK 55% • LAD 45% | OAK 4–LAD 9 | Miss |
| Giants at Diamondbacks Tue, Jun 30 | ARI 53% • SF 47% | ARI 5–SF 4 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Orioles Tue, Jun 30 | BAL 55% • CWS 45% | BAL 3–CWS 9 | Miss |
| Rangers at Guardians Tue, Jun 30 | CLE 55% • TEX 45% | CLE 2–TEX 4 | Miss |
| Pirates at Phillies Tue, Jun 30 | PHI 54% • PIT 46% | PHI 8–PIT 0 | Hit |
| Tigers at Yankees Tue, Jun 30 | NYY 55% • DET 45% | NYY 3–DET 9 | Miss |
| Mets at Blue Jays Tue, Jun 30 | TOR 55% • NYM 45% | TOR 0–NYM 3 | Miss |
| Nationals at Red Sox Tue, Jun 30 | BOS 52% • WSH 49% | BOS 1–WSH 8 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Braves Tue, Jun 30 | ATL 56% • STL 44% | ATL 3–STL 5 | Miss |
| Rays at Royals Tue, Jun 30 | KC 54% • TB 46% | KC 4–TB 10 | Miss |
| Reds at Brewers Tue, Jun 30 | MIL 57% • CIN 43% | MIL 7–CIN 2 | Hit |
| Padres at Cubs Wed, Jul 1 | CHC 53% • SD 47% | CHC 9–SD 7 | Hit |
| Twins at Astros Wed, Jul 1 | HOU 55% • MIN 45% | HOU 6–MIN 4 | Hit |
| Marlins at Rockies Wed, Jul 1 | COL 55% • MIA 45% | COL 3–MIA 14 | Miss |
| Angels at Mariners Wed, Jul 1 | SEA 55% • LAA 45% | SEA 8–LAA 3 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Athletics Wed, Jul 1 | OAK 55% • LAD 45% | OAK 3–LAD 9 | Miss |
| Giants at Diamondbacks Wed, Jul 1 | ARI 53% • SF 47% | ARI 8–SF 2 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Orioles Wed, Jul 1 | BAL 55% • CWS 45% | BAL 6–CWS 1 | Hit |
| Rangers at Guardians Wed, Jul 1 | CLE 55% • TEX 45% | CLE 9–TEX 4 | Hit |
| Tigers at Yankees Wed, Jul 1 | NYY 55% • DET 45% | NYY 2–DET 6 | Miss |
| Nationals at Red Sox Wed, Jul 1 | BOS 52% • WSH 49% | BOS 2–WSH 10 | Miss |
| Padres at Cubs Wed, Jul 1 | CHC 53% • SD 47% | CHC 23–SD 3 | Hit |
| Mets at Blue Jays Wed, Jul 1 | TOR 55% • NYM 45% | TOR 9–NYM 3 | Hit |
| Pirates at Phillies Wed, Jul 1 | PHI 54% • PIT 46% | PHI 10–PIT 6 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Braves Wed, Jul 1 | ATL 56% • STL 44% | ATL 5–STL 1 | Hit |
| Rays at Royals Wed, Jul 1 | KC 54% • TB 46% | KC 0–TB 4 | Miss |
| Reds at Brewers Thu, Jul 2 | MIL 57% • CIN 43% | MIL 4–CIN 2 | Hit |
| Twins at Astros Thu, Jul 2 | HOU 55% • MIN 45% | HOU 3–MIN 8 | Miss |
| Marlins at Rockies Thu, Jul 2 | COL 55% • MIA 45% | COL 6–MIA 3 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Athletics Thu, Jul 2 | OAK 55% • LAD 45% | OAK 7–LAD 1 | Hit |
| Giants at Diamondbacks Thu, Jul 2 | ARI 53% • SF 47% | ARI 4–SF 6 | Miss |
| Pirates at Phillies Thu, Jul 2 | PHI 54% • PIT 46% | PHI 1–PIT 6 | Miss |
| Reds at Brewers Thu, Jul 2 | MIL 57% • CIN 43% | MIL 2–CIN 7 | Miss |
| Marlins at Rockies Thu, Jul 2 | COL 55% • MIA 45% | COL 14–MIA 4 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Guardians Thu, Jul 2 | CLE 55% • CWS 45% | CLE 6–CWS 5 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Braves Thu, Jul 2 | ATL 56% • STL 44% | ATL 5–STL 11 | Miss |
| Rays at Royals Thu, Jul 2 | KC 54% • TB 46% | KC 2–TB 5 | Miss |
| Tigers at Rangers Fri, Jul 3 | TEX 56% • DET 44% | TEX 10–DET 4 | Hit |
| Angels at Mariners Fri, Jul 3 | SEA 55% • LAA 45% | SEA 1–LAA 0 | Hit |
| Padres at Dodgers Fri, Jul 3 | LAD 55% • SD 45% | LAD 12–SD 7 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Cubs Fri, Jul 3 | CHC 63% • STL 37% | CHC 1–STL 17 | Miss |
| Pirates at Nationals Fri, Jul 3 | WSH 58% • PIT 42% | WSH 9–PIT 5 | Hit |
| Twins at Yankees Fri, Jul 3 | NYY 57% • MIN 43% | NYY 5–MIN 2 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Guardians Fri, Jul 3 | CLE 55% • CWS 45% | CLE 4–CWS 3 | Hit |
| Orioles at Reds Fri, Jul 3 | CIN 54% • BAL 46% | CIN 0–BAL 3 | Miss |
| Mets at Braves Fri, Jul 3 | ATL 53% • NYM 47% | ATL 5–NYM 3 | Hit |
| Giants at Rockies Sat, Jul 4 | COL 54% • SF 46% | COL 15–SF 3 | Hit |
| Rays at Astros Sat, Jul 4 | HOU 56% • TB 44% | HOU 1–TB 3 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Angels Sat, Jul 4 | LAA 47% • BOS 53% | LAA 2–BOS 5 | Hit |
| Marlins at Athletics Sat, Jul 4 | OAK 56% • MIA 44% | OAK 5–MIA 12 | Miss |
| Brewers at Diamondbacks Sat, Jul 4 | ARI 54% • MIL 46% | ARI 4–MIL 7 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Mariners Sat, Jul 4 | SEA 51% • TOR 49% | SEA 0–TOR 2 | Miss |
| Padres at Dodgers Sat, Jul 4 | LAD 55% • SD 45% | LAD 4–SD 3 | Hit |
| Pirates at Nationals Sat, Jul 4 | WSH 57% • PIT 43% | WSH 1–PIT 7 | Miss |
| Twins at Yankees Sat, Jul 4 | NYY 55% • MIN 45% | NYY 4–MIN 11 | Miss |
| Tigers at Rangers Sat, Jul 4 | TEX 56% • DET 44% | TEX 0–DET 3 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Mariners Sat, Jul 4 | SEA 53% • TOR 47% | SEA 11–TOR 0 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Guardians Sat, Jul 4 | CLE 55% • CWS 45% | CLE 1–CWS 3 | Miss |
| Orioles at Reds Sat, Jul 4 | CIN 55% • BAL 45% | CIN 5–BAL 8 | Miss |
| Rays at Astros Sat, Jul 4 | HOU 54% • TB 46% | HOU 10–TB 8 | Hit |
| Mets at Braves Sun, Jul 5 | ATL 55% • NYM 45% | ATL 14–NYM 3 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Cubs Sun, Jul 5 | CHC 56% • STL 44% | CHC 0–STL 3 | Miss |
| Phillies at Royals Sun, Jul 5 | KC 55% • PHI 45% | KC 1–PHI 6 | Miss |
| Giants at Rockies Sun, Jul 5 | COL 54% • SF 46% | COL 4–SF 6 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Angels Sun, Jul 5 | LAA 55% • BOS 45% | LAA 1–BOS 8 | Miss |
| Brewers at Diamondbacks Sun, Jul 5 | ARI 53% • MIL 47% | ARI 4–MIL 3 | Hit |
| Marlins at Athletics Sun, Jul 5 | OAK 55% • MIA 45% | OAK 2–MIA 7 | Miss |
| Padres at Dodgers Sun, Jul 5 | LAD 55% • SD 45% | LAD 3–SD 0 | Hit |
| Mets at Braves Sun, Jul 5 | ATL 55% • NYM 45% | ATL 9–NYM 10 | Miss |
| Pirates at Nationals Sun, Jul 5 | WSH 57% • PIT 43% | WSH 5–PIT 11 | Miss |
| Orioles at Reds Sun, Jul 5 | CIN 55% • BAL 45% | CIN 3–BAL 2 | Hit |
| Twins at Yankees Sun, Jul 5 | NYY 55% • MIN 45% | NYY 1–MIN 6 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Guardians Sun, Jul 5 | CLE 55% • CWS 45% | CLE 6–CWS 7 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Cubs Sun, Jul 5 | CHC 56% • STL 44% | CHC 6–STL 4 | Hit |
| Phillies at Royals Sun, Jul 5 | KC 55% • PHI 45% | KC 5–PHI 2 | Hit |
| Tigers at Rangers Sun, Jul 5 | TEX 56% • DET 44% | TEX 3–DET 6 | Miss |
| Rays at Astros Sun, Jul 5 | HOU 54% • TB 46% | HOU 2–TB 0 | Hit |
| Giants at Rockies Sun, Jul 5 | COL 54% • SF 46% | COL 7–SF 6 | Hit |
| Brewers at Diamondbacks Sun, Jul 5 | ARI 53% • MIL 47% | ARI 2–MIL 3 | Miss |
| Marlins at Athletics Sun, Jul 5 | OAK 55% • MIA 45% | OAK 8–MIA 9 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Mariners Sun, Jul 5 | SEA 53% • TOR 47% | SEA 4–TOR 0 | Hit |
| Padres at Dodgers Sun, Jul 5 | LAD 55% • SD 45% | LAD 2–SD 5 | Miss |