MLB weekly recap: week of 2026-05-18 (2026)
Hit rate this week: 47% across 94 games; season-to-date: 54%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 58% — final CIN 1–STL 8
- Home Field Advantage (favors CIN)
- Rest Days (favors CIN)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guardians at Tigers Mon, May 18 | DET 54% • CLE 46% | DET 2–CLE 8 | Miss |
| Orioles at Rays Mon, May 18 | TB 56% • BAL 44% | TB 16–BAL 6 | Hit |
| Braves at Marlins Mon, May 18 | MIA 55% • ATL 45% | MIA 12–ATL 0 | Hit |
| Reds at Phillies Mon, May 18 | PHI 55% • CIN 45% | PHI 5–CIN 4 | Hit |
| Mets at Nationals Mon, May 18 | WSH 55% • NYM 45% | WSH 7–NYM 16 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Yankees Mon, May 18 | NYY 55% • TOR 45% | NYY 7–TOR 6 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Royals Mon, May 18 | KC 55% • BOS 45% | KC 1–BOS 3 | Miss |
| Brewers at Cubs Mon, May 18 | CHC 53% • MIL 47% | CHC 3–MIL 9 | Miss |
| Astros at Twins Mon, May 18 | MIN 55% • HOU 45% | MIN 6–HOU 3 | Hit |
| Rangers at Rockies Tue, May 19 | COL 55% • TEX 45% | COL 7–TEX 6 | Hit |
| Athletics at Angels Tue, May 19 | LAA 54% • OAK 46% | LAA 2–OAK 1 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Mariners Tue, May 19 | SEA 55% • CWS 45% | SEA 6–CWS 1 | Hit |
| Giants at Diamondbacks Tue, May 19 | ARI 53% • SF 47% | ARI 12–SF 2 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Padres Tue, May 19 | SD 55% • LAD 45% | SD 1–LAD 0 | Hit |
| Braves at Marlins Tue, May 19 | MIA 55% • ATL 45% | MIA 4–ATL 8 | Miss |
| Reds at Phillies Tue, May 19 | PHI 55% • CIN 45% | PHI 1–CIN 4 | Miss |
| Orioles at Rays Tue, May 19 | TB 56% • BAL 44% | TB 4–BAL 1 | Hit |
| Guardians at Tigers Tue, May 19 | DET 54% • CLE 46% | DET 3–CLE 4 | Miss |
| Mets at Nationals Tue, May 19 | WSH 55% • NYM 45% | WSH 9–NYM 6 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Yankees Tue, May 19 | NYY 55% • TOR 45% | NYY 5–TOR 4 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Royals Tue, May 19 | KC 55% • BOS 45% | KC 1–BOS 7 | Miss |
| Brewers at Cubs Tue, May 19 | CHC 53% • MIL 47% | CHC 2–MIL 5 | Miss |
| Astros at Twins Tue, May 19 | MIN 55% • HOU 45% | MIN 1–HOU 2 | Miss |
| Pirates at Cardinals Tue, May 19 | STL 54% • PIT 46% | STL 9–PIT 6 | Hit |
| Rangers at Rockies Wed, May 20 | COL 55% • TEX 45% | COL 0–TEX 10 | Miss |
| Athletics at Angels Wed, May 20 | LAA 54% • OAK 46% | LAA 6–OAK 14 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Mariners Wed, May 20 | SEA 55% • CWS 45% | SEA 1–CWS 2 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Padres Wed, May 20 | SD 55% • LAD 45% | SD 4–LAD 5 | Miss |
| Giants at Diamondbacks Wed, May 20 | ARI 53% • SF 47% | ARI 5–SF 3 | Hit |
| Reds at Phillies Wed, May 20 | PHI 55% • CIN 45% | PHI 4–CIN 9 | Miss |
| Orioles at Rays Wed, May 20 | TB 56% • BAL 44% | TB 5–BAL 3 | Hit |
| Astros at Twins Wed, May 20 | MIN 55% • HOU 45% | MIN 4–HOU 1 | Hit |
| Rangers at Rockies Wed, May 20 | COL 55% • TEX 45% | COL 4–TEX 5 | Miss |
| Giants at Diamondbacks Wed, May 20 | ARI 53% • SF 47% | ARI 6–SF 3 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Mariners Wed, May 20 | SEA 55% • CWS 45% | SEA 5–CWS 4 | Hit |
| Braves at Marlins Wed, May 20 | MIA 55% • ATL 45% | MIA 1–ATL 9 | Miss |
| Guardians at Tigers Wed, May 20 | DET 54% • CLE 46% | DET 2–CLE 3 | Miss |
| Mets at Nationals Wed, May 20 | WSH 55% • NYM 45% | WSH 8–NYM 4 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Yankees Wed, May 20 | NYY 55% • TOR 45% | NYY 1–TOR 2 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Royals Wed, May 20 | KC 55% • BOS 45% | KC 3–BOS 4 | Miss |
| Brewers at Cubs Wed, May 20 | CHC 53% • MIL 47% | CHC 0–MIL 5 | Miss |
| Pirates at Cardinals Wed, May 20 | STL 54% • PIT 46% | STL 0–PIT 7 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Padres Thu, May 21 | SD 55% • LAD 45% | SD 0–LAD 4 | Miss |
| Athletics at Angels Thu, May 21 | LAA 54% • OAK 46% | LAA 5–OAK 6 | Miss |
| Guardians at Tigers Thu, May 21 | DET 54% • CLE 46% | DET 1–CLE 3 | Miss |
| Pirates at Cardinals Thu, May 21 | STL 54% • PIT 46% | STL 2–PIT 6 | Miss |
| Mets at Nationals Thu, May 21 | WSH 55% • NYM 45% | WSH 1–NYM 2 | Miss |
| Braves at Marlins Thu, May 21 | MIA 55% • ATL 45% | MIA 3–ATL 9 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Yankees Thu, May 21 | NYY 55% • TOR 45% | NYY 0–TOR 2 | Miss |
| Athletics at Angels Fri, May 22 | LAA 54% • OAK 46% | LAA 2–OAK 3 | Miss |
| Rockies at Diamondbacks Fri, May 22 | ARI 54% • COL 46% | ARI 2–COL 1 | Hit |
| Astros at Cubs Fri, May 22 | CHC 53% • HOU 47% | CHC 2–HOU 4 | Miss |
| Guardians at Phillies Fri, May 22 | PHI 56% • CLE 44% | PHI 0–CLE 1 | Miss |
| Rays at Yankees Fri, May 22 | NYY 53% • TB 47% | NYY 2–TB 4 | Miss |
| Pirates at Blue Jays Fri, May 22 | TOR 56% • PIT 44% | TOR 6–PIT 2 | Hit |
| Twins at Red Sox Fri, May 22 | BOS 52% • MIN 48% | BOS 6–MIN 8 | Miss |
| Mets at Marlins Fri, May 22 | MIA 55% • NYM 45% | MIA 2–NYM 1 | Hit |
| Nationals at Braves Fri, May 22 | ATL 52% • WSH 48% | ATL 5–WSH 4 | Hit |
| Tigers at Orioles Fri, May 22 | BAL 57% • DET 43% | BAL 7–DET 4 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Brewers Fri, May 22 | MIL 57% • LAD 43% | MIL 5–LAD 1 | Hit |
| Mariners at Royals Fri, May 22 | KC 55% • SEA 45% | KC 0–SEA 2 | Miss |
| Rangers at Angels Sat, May 23 | LAA 52% • TEX 48% | LAA 9–TEX 6 | Hit |
| Rockies at Diamondbacks Sat, May 23 | ARI 54% • COL 46% | ARI 2–COL 3 | Miss |
| Athletics at Padres Sat, May 23 | SD 58% • OAK 42% | SD 7–OAK 3 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Giants Sat, May 23 | SF 55% • CWS 45% | SF 4–CWS 9 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Reds Sat, May 23 | CIN 58% • STL 42% | CIN 1–STL 8 | Miss |
| Astros at Cubs Sat, May 23 | CHC 55% • HOU 45% | CHC 0–HOU 3 | Miss |
| Pirates at Blue Jays Sat, May 23 | TOR 56% • PIT 44% | TOR 5–PIT 2 | Hit |
| Guardians at Phillies Sat, May 23 | PHI 54% • CLE 46% | PHI 3–CLE 0 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Giants Sat, May 23 | SF 55% • CWS 45% | SF 10–CWS 3 | Hit |
| Mariners at Royals Sat, May 23 | KC 55% • SEA 45% | KC 5–SEA 0 | Hit |
| Mets at Marlins Sat, May 23 | MIA 55% • NYM 45% | MIA 4–NYM 1 | Hit |
| Nationals at Braves Sat, May 23 | ATL 52% • WSH 48% | ATL 0–WSH 2 | Miss |
| Twins at Red Sox Sat, May 23 | BOS 54% • MIN 46% | BOS 2–MIN 4 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Brewers Sat, May 23 | MIL 55% • LAD 45% | MIL 3–LAD 11 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Reds Sat, May 23 | CIN 56% • STL 44% | CIN 7–STL 6 | Hit |
| Athletics at Padres Sun, May 24 | SD 57% • OAK 43% | SD 2–OAK 0 | Hit |
| Rangers at Angels Sun, May 24 | LAA 54% • TEX 46% | LAA 5–TEX 2 | Hit |
| Rockies at Diamondbacks Sun, May 24 | ARI 54% • COL 46% | ARI 5–COL 4 | Hit |
| Pirates at Blue Jays Sun, May 24 | TOR 56% • PIT 44% | TOR 1–PIT 4 | Miss |
| Tigers at Orioles Sun, May 24 | BAL 55% • DET 45% | BAL 5–DET 3 | Hit |
| Guardians at Phillies Sun, May 24 | PHI 54% • CLE 46% | PHI 1–CLE 3 | Miss |
| Rays at Yankees Sun, May 24 | NYY 55% • TB 45% | NYY 2–TB 0 | Hit |
| Twins at Red Sox Sun, May 24 | BOS 54% • MIN 46% | BOS 5–MIN 6 | Miss |
| Mets at Marlins Sun, May 24 | MIA 55% • NYM 45% | MIA 4–NYM 0 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Brewers Sun, May 24 | MIL 55% • LAD 45% | MIL 1–LAD 5 | Miss |
| Mariners at Royals Sun, May 24 | KC 55% • SEA 45% | KC 8–SEA 6 | Hit |
| Astros at Cubs Sun, May 24 | CHC 55% • HOU 45% | CHC 5–HOU 8 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Giants Sun, May 24 | SF 55% • CWS 45% | SF 8–CWS 5 | Hit |
| Nationals at Braves Sun, May 24 | ATL 52% • WSH 48% | ATL 1–WSH 2 | Miss |
| Rockies at Diamondbacks Sun, May 24 | ARI 54% • COL 46% | ARI 9–COL 1 | Hit |
| Athletics at Padres Sun, May 24 | SD 57% • OAK 43% | SD 2–OAK 5 | Miss |
| Tigers at Orioles Sun, May 24 | BAL 55% • DET 45% | BAL 1–DET 4 | Miss |
| Rangers at Angels Sun, May 24 | LAA 54% • TEX 46% | LAA 2–TEX 1 | Hit |