San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants
New York Giants vs San Francisco 49ers head-to-head
San Francisco 49ers 53% to win. The biggest signal favoring 49ers:
- ELO Rating. Giants ELO 1414 vs 49ers ELO 1596 (diff: -183)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: SF 46% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: SF 55% (+2)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
49ers at Giants
The 49ers visit the Giants at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ in NFL regular season Week 13 action.
Our model gives the 49ers a 53% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Giants to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the 49ers (medium): Giants ELO 1414 vs 49ers ELO 1596 (diff: -183)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Giants (low): Giants are 3-1 at home this season; 49ers are 2-0 on the road
- Rest Days is neutral: Rest day data not available for this matchup
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors San Francisco 49ers
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New York Giants
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.
Key Players
49ers
Giants
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
New York Giants
- Previous game57%NYG win probability
- Next game68%SEA win probability
San Francisco 49ers
Other Week 13 games
- 52%LAR win probability
- 52%CLE win probability
- 51%DET win probability
- 54%TB win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Giants has a 47% win probability, while 49ers has a 53% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ.