Houston Texans at Washington Commanders
Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders head-to-head
Houston Texans 50% to win. The biggest signal favoring Texans:
- ELO Rating. Commanders ELO 1424 vs Texans ELO 1541 (diff: -116)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: HOU 46% (−4)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: HOU 52% (+2)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Texans at Commanders
The Texans visit the Commanders at Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD in NFL regular season Week 14 action.
Our model gives the Texans a 50% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Commanders to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Texans (low): Commanders ELO 1424 vs Texans ELO 1541 (diff: -116)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Commanders (low): Commanders are 1-1 at home this season; Texans are 2-1 on the road
- Offensive Efficiency is neutral: Offensive efficiency stats not yet available
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors Houston Texans
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Washington Commanders
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Texans
Commanders
Learn About Our Analysis
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NFL Win Probability
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More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Washington Commanders
- Previous game58%SF win probability
- Next game55%WSH win probability
Houston Texans
- Previous game62%JAX win probability
- Next game51%HOU win probability
Other Week 14 games
- 55%NE win probability
- 59%BAL win probability
- 57%CLE win probability
- 67%DET win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Commanders has a 50% win probability, while Texans has a 50% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD.