NBA report card: week of 2026-04-27 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
68.4%
hit rate
0.220
Brier score
13 of 19 decided
Season to date
69.1%
hit rate
0.195
Brier score
273 of 395 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- 76ers at CelticsBOS 75.9% pre-game — final BOS 100–PHI 109
- 76ers at CelticsBOS 75.9% pre-game — final BOS 97–PHI 113
- Pistons at MagicDET 71.7% pre-game — final ORL 94–DET 88
- Celtics at 76ersBOS 65.5% pre-game — final PHI 106–BOS 93
- Lakers at RocketsHOU 64.9% pre-game — final HOU 78–LAL 98
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Trail Blazers at SpursSAS 86.6% pre-game — final SAS 114–POR 95
- Thunder at SunsOKC 81.0% pre-game — final PHX 122–OKC 131
- Magic at PistonsDET 80.8% pre-game — final DET 116–ORL 94
- Magic at PistonsDET 80.8% pre-game — final DET 116–ORL 109
- Hawks at KnicksNYK 74.9% pre-game — final NYK 126–ATL 97
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lakers at Rockets Mon, Apr 27 | HOU 64.9% · LAL 35.1% | HOU 115–LAL 96 | Hit |
| Pistons at Magic Tue, Apr 28 | ORL 28.3% · DET 71.7% | ORL 94–DET 88 | Miss |
| Thunder at Suns Tue, Apr 28 | PHX 19.0% · OKC 81.0% | PHX 122–OKC 131 | Hit |
| Timberwolves at Nuggets Tue, Apr 28 | DEN 57.4% · MIN 42.6% | DEN 125–MIN 113 | Hit |
| 76ers at Celtics Tue, Apr 28 | BOS 75.9% · PHI 24.1% | BOS 97–PHI 113 | Miss |
| Hawks at Knicks Wed, Apr 29 | NYK 74.9% · ATL 25.1% | NYK 126–ATL 97 | Hit |
| Trail Blazers at Spurs Wed, Apr 29 | SAS 86.6% · POR 13.4% | SAS 114–POR 95 | Hit |
| Magic at Pistons Wed, Apr 29 | DET 80.8% · ORL 19.2% | DET 116–ORL 109 | Hit |
| Raptors at Cavaliers Wed, Apr 29 | CLE 66.2% · TOR 33.8% | CLE 125–TOR 120 | Hit |
| Rockets at Lakers Thu, Apr 30 | LAL 47.4% · HOU 52.6% | LAL 93–HOU 99 | Hit |
| Knicks at Hawks Thu, Apr 30 | ATL 34.1% · NYK 65.9% | ATL 89–NYK 140 | Hit |
| Celtics at 76ers Fri, May 1 | PHI 34.5% · BOS 65.5% | PHI 106–BOS 93 | Miss |
| Nuggets at Timberwolves Fri, May 1 | MIN 53.5% · DEN 46.5% | MIN 110–DEN 98 | Hit |
| Pistons at Magic Fri, May 1 | ORL 28.3% · DET 71.7% | ORL 79–DET 93 | Hit |
| Cavaliers at Raptors Fri, May 1 | TOR 45.9% · CLE 54.1% | TOR 112–CLE 110 | Miss |
| Lakers at Rockets Sat, May 2 | HOU 64.9% · LAL 35.1% | HOU 78–LAL 98 | Miss |
| 76ers at Celtics Sat, May 2 | BOS 75.9% · PHI 24.1% | BOS 100–PHI 109 | Miss |
| Magic at Pistons Sun, May 3 | DET 80.8% · ORL 19.2% | DET 116–ORL 94 | Hit |
| Raptors at Cavaliers Sun, May 3 | CLE 66.2% · TOR 33.8% | CLE 114–TOR 102 | Hit |
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