MLB weekly recap: week of 2026-06-22 (2026)
Hit rate this week: 47% across 96 games; season-to-date: 54%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 60% — final DET 1–HOU 2
- Rest Days (favors DET)
- Home Field Advantage (favors DET)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees at Tigers Mon, Jun 22 | DET 55% • NYY 45% | DET 5–NYY 3 | Hit |
| Royals at Rays Mon, Jun 22 | TB 56% • KC 44% | TB 1–KC 2 | Miss |
| Rangers at Marlins Mon, Jun 22 | MIA 55% • TEX 45% | MIA 3–TEX 4 | Miss |
| Phillies at Nationals Mon, Jun 22 | WSH 64% • PHI 36% | WSH 4–PHI 1 | Hit |
| Astros at Blue Jays Mon, Jun 22 | TOR 58% • HOU 42% | TOR 4–HOU 2 | Hit |
| Brewers at Reds Mon, Jun 22 | CIN 53% • MIL 47% | CIN 1–MIL 2 | Miss |
| Guardians at Chicago White Sox Mon, Jun 22 | CWS 55% • CLE 45% | CWS 6–CLE 5 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Twins Mon, Jun 22 | MIN 55% • LAD 45% | MIN 1–LAD 2 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Cardinals Mon, Jun 22 | STL 55% • ARI 45% | STL 3–ARI 2 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Rockies Tue, Jun 23 | COL 56% • BOS 44% | COL 3–BOS 2 | Hit |
| Orioles at Angels Tue, Jun 23 | LAA 55% • BAL 45% | LAA 1–BAL 6 | Miss |
| Braves at Padres Tue, Jun 23 | SD 57% • ATL 43% | SD 1–ATL 0 | Hit |
| Astros at Blue Jays Tue, Jun 23 | TOR 56% • HOU 44% | TOR 7–HOU 9 | Miss |
| Yankees at Tigers Tue, Jun 23 | DET 55% • NYY 45% | DET 3–NYY 4 | Miss |
| Rangers at Marlins Tue, Jun 23 | MIA 55% • TEX 45% | MIA 6–TEX 4 | Hit |
| Royals at Rays Tue, Jun 23 | TB 56% • KC 44% | TB 5–KC 12 | Miss |
| Mariners at Pirates Tue, Jun 23 | PIT 56% • SEA 44% | PIT 2–SEA 3 | Miss |
| Phillies at Nationals Tue, Jun 23 | WSH 58% • PHI 42% | WSH 9–PHI 14 | Miss |
| Brewers at Reds Tue, Jun 23 | CIN 53% • MIL 47% | CIN 0–MIL 2 | Miss |
| Cubs at Mets Tue, Jun 23 | NYM 53% • CHC 47% | NYM 6–CHC 9 | Miss |
| Guardians at Chicago White Sox Tue, Jun 23 | CWS 55% • CLE 45% | CWS 2–CLE 1 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Twins Tue, Jun 23 | MIN 55% • LAD 45% | MIN 3–LAD 12 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Cardinals Tue, Jun 23 | STL 55% • ARI 45% | STL 3–ARI 4 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Rockies Wed, Jun 24 | COL 56% • BOS 44% | COL 2–BOS 5 | Miss |
| Orioles at Angels Wed, Jun 24 | LAA 55% • BAL 45% | LAA 5–BAL 1 | Hit |
| Braves at Padres Wed, Jun 24 | SD 57% • ATL 43% | SD 7–ATL 6 | Hit |
| Athletics at Giants Wed, Jun 24 | SF 56% • OAK 44% | SF 3–OAK 1 | Hit |
| Rangers at Marlins Wed, Jun 24 | MIA 55% • TEX 45% | MIA 4–TEX 2 | Hit |
| Cubs at Mets Wed, Jun 24 | NYM 55% • CHC 45% | NYM 3–CHC 10 | Miss |
| Guardians at Chicago White Sox Wed, Jun 24 | CWS 55% • CLE 45% | CWS 3–CLE 4 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Rockies Wed, Jun 24 | COL 56% • BOS 44% | COL 8–BOS 6 | Hit |
| Orioles at Angels Wed, Jun 24 | LAA 55% • BAL 45% | LAA 7–BAL 6 | Hit |
| Royals at Rays Wed, Jun 24 | TB 56% • KC 44% | TB 5–KC 3 | Hit |
| Yankees at Tigers Wed, Jun 24 | DET 55% • NYY 45% | DET 2–NYY 4 | Miss |
| Mariners at Pirates Wed, Jun 24 | PIT 56% • SEA 44% | PIT 11–SEA 1 | Hit |
| Phillies at Nationals Wed, Jun 24 | WSH 58% • PHI 42% | WSH 4–PHI 5 | Miss |
| Astros at Blue Jays Wed, Jun 24 | TOR 56% • HOU 44% | TOR 1–HOU 3 | Miss |
| Cubs at Mets Wed, Jun 24 | NYM 55% • CHC 45% | NYM 5–CHC 10 | Miss |
| Brewers at Reds Wed, Jun 24 | CIN 53% • MIL 47% | CIN 5–MIL 6 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Twins Wed, Jun 24 | MIN 55% • LAD 45% | MIN 3–LAD 4 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Cardinals Wed, Jun 24 | STL 55% • ARI 45% | STL 4–ARI 9 | Miss |
| Braves at Padres Thu, Jun 25 | SD 57% • ATL 43% | SD 5–ATL 2 | Hit |
| Athletics at Giants Thu, Jun 25 | SF 56% • OAK 44% | SF 2–OAK 1 | Hit |
| Royals at Rays Thu, Jun 25 | TB 56% • KC 44% | TB 13–KC 2 | Hit |
| Mariners at Pirates Thu, Jun 25 | PIT 56% • SEA 44% | PIT 5–SEA 1 | Hit |
| Athletics at Giants Thu, Jun 25 | SF 56% • OAK 44% | SF 6–OAK 9 | Miss |
| Astros at Tigers Thu, Jun 25 | DET 60% • HOU 40% | DET 1–HOU 2 | Miss |
| Phillies at Nationals Thu, Jun 25 | WSH 58% • PHI 42% | WSH 5–PHI 10 | Miss |
| Rangers at Blue Jays Thu, Jun 25 | TOR 56% • TEX 44% | TOR 5–TEX 6 | Miss |
| Cubs at Mets Thu, Jun 25 | NYM 55% • CHC 45% | NYM 3–CHC 4 | Miss |
| Yankees at Red Sox Thu, Jun 25 | BOS 55% • NYY 45% | BOS 6–NYY 3 | Hit |
| Reds at Pirates Fri, Jun 26 | PIT 56% • CIN 44% | PIT 4–CIN 6 | Miss |
| Astros at Tigers Fri, Jun 26 | DET 54% • HOU 46% | DET 8–HOU 0 | Hit |
| Nationals at Orioles Fri, Jun 26 | BAL 53% • WSH 47% | BAL 3–WSH 1 | Hit |
| Rangers at Blue Jays Fri, Jun 26 | TOR 56% • TEX 44% | TOR 4–TEX 5 | Miss |
| Yankees at Red Sox Fri, Jun 26 | BOS 55% • NYY 45% | BOS 6–NYY 1 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Rays Fri, Jun 26 | TB 56% • ARI 44% | TB 6–ARI 1 | Hit |
| Phillies at Mets Fri, Jun 26 | NYM 55% • PHI 45% | NYM 1–PHI 2 | Miss |
| Mariners at Guardians Fri, Jun 26 | CLE 58% • SEA 42% | CLE 1–SEA 3 | Miss |
| Royals at Chicago White Sox Fri, Jun 26 | CWS 57% • KC 43% | CWS 22–KC 1 | Hit |
| Cubs at Brewers Fri, Jun 26 | MIL 58% • CHC 42% | MIL 6–CHC 2 | Hit |
| Rockies at Twins Sat, Jun 27 | MIN 55% • COL 45% | MIN 9–COL 8 | Hit |
| Marlins at Cardinals Sat, Jun 27 | STL 54% • MIA 46% | STL 0–MIA 4 | Miss |
| Athletics at Angels Sat, Jun 27 | LAA 56% • OAK 44% | LAA 3–OAK 9 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Padres Sat, Jun 27 | SD 55% • LAD 45% | SD 7–LAD 1 | Hit |
| Braves at Giants Sat, Jun 27 | SF 54% • ATL 46% | SF 1–ATL 3 | Miss |
| Yankees at Red Sox Sat, Jun 27 | BOS 55% • NYY 45% | BOS 4–NYY 1 | Hit |
| Astros at Tigers Sat, Jun 27 | DET 54% • HOU 46% | DET 6–HOU 8 | Miss |
| Rangers at Blue Jays Sat, Jun 27 | TOR 56% • TEX 44% | TOR 4–TEX 7 | Miss |
| Phillies at Mets Sat, Jun 27 | NYM 55% • PHI 45% | NYM 6–PHI 2 | Hit |
| Royals at Chicago White Sox Sat, Jun 27 | CWS 55% • KC 45% | CWS 2–KC 1 | Hit |
| Reds at Pirates Sat, Jun 27 | PIT 56% • CIN 44% | PIT 7–CIN 9 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Rays Sat, Jun 27 | TB 56% • ARI 44% | TB 4–ARI 2 | Hit |
| Nationals at Orioles Sat, Jun 27 | BAL 52% • WSH 48% | BAL 3–WSH 4 | Miss |
| Cubs at Brewers Sat, Jun 27 | MIL 57% • CHC 43% | MIL 2–CHC 8 | Miss |
| Rockies at Twins Sat, Jun 27 | MIN 55% • COL 45% | MIN 5–COL 8 | Miss |
| Mariners at Guardians Sat, Jun 27 | CLE 56% • SEA 44% | CLE 4–SEA 3 | Hit |
| Marlins at Cardinals Sat, Jun 27 | STL 54% • MIA 46% | STL 1–MIA 5 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Padres Sun, Jun 28 | SD 55% • LAD 45% | SD 3–LAD 15 | Miss |
| Braves at Giants Sun, Jun 28 | SF 56% • ATL 44% | SF 5–ATL 0 | Hit |
| Athletics at Angels Sun, Jun 28 | LAA 54% • OAK 46% | LAA 5–OAK 2 | Hit |
| Nationals at Orioles Sun, Jun 28 | BAL 52% • WSH 48% | BAL 4–WSH 6 | Miss |
| Reds at Pirates Sun, Jun 28 | PIT 56% • CIN 44% | PIT 9–CIN 4 | Hit |
| Rangers at Blue Jays Sun, Jun 28 | TOR 56% • TEX 44% | TOR 2–TEX 3 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Rays Sun, Jun 28 | TB 56% • ARI 44% | TB 5–ARI 1 | Hit |
| Phillies at Mets Sun, Jun 28 | NYM 55% • PHI 45% | NYM 4–PHI 5 | Miss |
| Astros at Tigers Sun, Jun 28 | DET 54% • HOU 46% | DET 5–HOU 7 | Miss |
| Mariners at Guardians Sun, Jun 28 | CLE 56% • SEA 44% | CLE 6–SEA 5 | Hit |
| Rockies at Twins Sun, Jun 28 | MIN 55% • COL 45% | MIN 3–COL 2 | Hit |
| Cubs at Brewers Sun, Jun 28 | MIL 57% • CHC 43% | MIL 3–CHC 4 | Miss |
| Royals at Chicago White Sox Sun, Jun 28 | CWS 55% • KC 45% | CWS 4–KC 5 | Miss |
| Marlins at Cardinals Sun, Jun 28 | STL 54% • MIA 46% | STL 2–MIA 1 | Hit |
| Athletics at Angels Sun, Jun 28 | LAA 54% • OAK 46% | LAA 4–OAK 1 | Hit |
| Braves at Giants Sun, Jun 28 | SF 56% • ATL 44% | SF 3–ATL 2 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Padres Sun, Jun 28 | SD 55% • LAD 45% | SD 2–LAD 4 | Miss |
| Yankees at Red Sox Sun, Jun 28 | BOS 55% • NYY 45% | BOS 5–NYY 4 | Hit |