Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays head-to-head
Boston Red Sox 54% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Red Sox:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days. Red Sox rest advantage (2 days rest) over Blue Jays (1 day rest)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: BOS 54% (0)
- If the rest edge were neutral: BOS 56% (+2)
Win probability movement
BOS home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Red Sox defeated the Blue Jays 6-4.
Our model predicted the Red Sox would win with 54% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Red Sox and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Red Sox and was a contributing factor: Red Sox rest advantage (2 days rest) over Blue Jays (1 day rest)
- Weather Impact was neutral and a contributing factor: Weather data not available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Red Sox won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Boston Red Sox
- Rest DaysFavors Boston Red Sox
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Blue Jays
Red Sox
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Boston Red Sox
- Previous game55%BOS win probability
- Next game53%BOS win probability
Toronto Blue Jays
- Previous game56%TOR win probability
- Next game53%BOS win probability
Other games on Jul 24, 2026
- 56%MIL win probability
- 55%DET win probability
- 55%PIT win probability
- 57%PHI win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Red Sox has a 54% win probability, while Blue Jays has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts.