MLB report card: week of 2026-07-20 (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
50.5%
hit rate
0.250
Brier score
48 of 95 decided
Season to date
53.9%
hit rate
0.248
Brier score
1103 of 2046 decided · 10 ties
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Diamondbacks at NationalsWSH 59.7% pre-game — final WSH 2–ARI 3
- Yankees at PhilliesPHI 56.6% pre-game — final PHI 0–NYY 1
- Angels at GiantsSF 56.3% pre-game — final SF 3–LAA 4
- Rockies at BrewersMIL 56.2% pre-game — final MIL 2–COL 5
- Mariners at RangersTEX 55.7% pre-game — final TEX 4–SEA 6
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Dodgers at PhilliesPHI 60.8% pre-game — final PHI 10–LAD 7
- Diamondbacks at NationalsWSH 58.0% pre-game — final WSH 10–ARI 7
- Diamondbacks at NationalsWSH 58.0% pre-game — final WSH 5–ARI 3
- Angels at GiantsSF 56.3% pre-game — final SF 9–LAA 2
- Angels at GiantsSF 56.3% pre-game — final SF 7–LAA 6
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twins at Guardians Mon, Jul 20 | CLE 55.2% · MIN 44.8% | CLE 13–MIN 4 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Phillies Mon, Jul 20 | PHI 60.8% · LAD 39.2% | PHI 10–LAD 7 | Hit |
| Pirates at Yankees Mon, Jul 20 | NYY 48.8% · PIT 51.2% | NYY 8–PIT 5 | Miss |
| Rays at Blue Jays Mon, Jul 20 | TOR 55.7% · TB 44.3% | TOR 1–TB 7 | Miss |
| Orioles at Red Sox Mon, Jul 20 | BOS 54.6% · BAL 45.4% | BOS 6–BAL 5 | Hit |
| Padres at Braves Mon, Jul 20 | ATL 53.1% · SD 46.9% | ATL 3–SD 2 | Hit |
| Mets at Brewers Mon, Jul 20 | MIL 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | MIL 8–NYM 3 | Hit |
| Giants at Royals Mon, Jul 20 | KC 53.7% · SF 46.3% | KC 4–SF 3 | Hit |
| Tigers at Cubs Tue, Jul 21 | CHC 55.5% · DET 44.5% | CHC 6–DET 8 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Rangers Tue, Jul 21 | TEX 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | TEX 3–CWS 10 | Miss |
| Marlins at Astros Tue, Jul 21 | HOU 54.7% · MIA 45.3% | HOU 8–MIA 5 | Hit |
| Nationals at Rockies Tue, Jul 21 | COL 52.7% · WSH 47.3% | COL 3–WSH 7 | Miss |
| Athletics at Diamondbacks Tue, Jul 21 | ARI 54.3% · OAK 45.7% | ARI 2–OAK 5 | Miss |
| Reds at Mariners Tue, Jul 21 | SEA 54.5% · CIN 45.5% | SEA 8–CIN 0 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Angels Tue, Jul 21 | LAA 54.9% · STL 45.1% | LAA 3–STL 2 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Phillies Tue, Jul 21 | PHI 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | PHI 1–LAD 2 | Miss |
| Twins at Guardians Tue, Jul 21 | CLE 55.2% · MIN 44.8% | CLE 5–MIN 2 | Hit |
| Rays at Blue Jays Tue, Jul 21 | TOR 55.7% · TB 44.3% | TOR 2–TB 12 | Miss |
| Padres at Braves Tue, Jul 21 | ATL 53.1% · SD 46.9% | ATL 3–SD 8 | Miss |
| Mets at Brewers Tue, Jul 21 | MIL 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | MIL 0–NYM 4 | Miss |
| Giants at Royals Tue, Jul 21 | KC 53.7% · SF 46.3% | KC 3–SF 2 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Rangers Wed, Jul 22 | TEX 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | TEX 10–CWS 0 | Hit |
| Tigers at Cubs Wed, Jul 22 | CHC 55.5% · DET 44.5% | CHC 11–DET 2 | Hit |
| Marlins at Astros Wed, Jul 22 | HOU 54.7% · MIA 45.3% | HOU 5–MIA 3 | Hit |
| Nationals at Rockies Wed, Jul 22 | COL 52.7% · WSH 47.3% | COL 8–WSH 7 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Angels Wed, Jul 22 | LAA 54.9% · STL 45.1% | LAA 5–STL 1 | Hit |
| Reds at Mariners Wed, Jul 22 | SEA 54.5% · CIN 45.5% | SEA 2–CIN 4 | Miss |
| Athletics at Diamondbacks Wed, Jul 22 | ARI 54.3% · OAK 45.7% | ARI 6–OAK 5 | Hit |
| Pirates at Yankees Wed, Jul 22 | NYY 54.9% · PIT 45.1% | NYY 3–PIT 5 | Miss |
| Orioles at Red Sox Wed, Jul 22 | BOS 54.6% · BAL 45.4% | BOS 6–BAL 3 | Hit |
| Giants at Royals Wed, Jul 22 | KC 53.7% · SF 46.3% | KC 5–SF 4 | Hit |
| Mets at Brewers Wed, Jul 22 | MIL 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | MIL 4–NYM 3 | Hit |
| Nationals at Rockies Wed, Jul 22 | COL 52.7% · WSH 47.3% | COL 0–WSH 8 | Miss |
| Reds at Mariners Wed, Jul 22 | SEA 54.5% · CIN 45.5% | SEA 3–CIN 5 | Miss |
| Athletics at Diamondbacks Wed, Jul 22 | ARI 54.3% · OAK 45.7% | ARI 15–OAK 5 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Angels Wed, Jul 22 | LAA 54.9% · STL 45.1% | LAA 0–STL 1 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Phillies Wed, Jul 22 | PHI 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | PHI 5–LAD 9 | Miss |
| Twins at Guardians Wed, Jul 22 | CLE 55.2% · MIN 44.8% | CLE 6–MIN 10 | Miss |
| Pirates at Yankees Wed, Jul 22 | NYY 54.9% · PIT 45.1% | NYY 2–PIT 0 | Hit |
| Rays at Blue Jays Wed, Jul 22 | TOR 55.7% · TB 44.3% | TOR 2–TB 4 | Miss |
| Orioles at Red Sox Wed, Jul 22 | BOS 54.6% · BAL 45.4% | BOS 1–BAL 5 | Miss |
| Padres at Braves Wed, Jul 22 | ATL 53.1% · SD 46.9% | ATL 7–SD 6 | Hit |
| Tigers at Cubs Thu, Jul 23 | CHC 55.5% · DET 44.5% | CHC 1–DET 5 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Rangers Thu, Jul 23 | TEX 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | TEX 2–CWS 4 | Miss |
| Marlins at Astros Thu, Jul 23 | HOU 54.7% · MIA 45.3% | HOU 5–MIA 2 | Hit |
| Padres at Braves Thu, Jul 23 | ATL 53.1% · SD 46.9% | ATL 6–SD 5 | Hit |
| Twins at Guardians Thu, Jul 23 | CLE 55.2% · MIN 44.8% | CLE 1–MIN 3 | Miss |
| Rays at Blue Jays Thu, Jul 23 | TOR 55.7% · TB 44.3% | TOR 3–TB 1 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Cardinals Thu, Jul 23 | STL 54.8% · ARI 45.2% | STL 6–ARI 10 | Miss |
| Royals at Tigers Thu, Jul 23 | DET 48.5% · KC 51.5% | DET 4–KC 3 | Miss |
| Rockies at Brewers Fri, Jul 24 | MIL 56.2% · COL 43.8% | MIL 2–COL 5 | Miss |
| Royals at Tigers Fri, Jul 24 | DET 54.6% · KC 45.4% | DET 2–KC 1 | Hit |
| Cubs at Pirates Fri, Jul 24 | PIT 55.5% · CHC 44.5% | PIT 2–CHC 3 | Miss |
| Yankees at Phillies Fri, Jul 24 | PHI 56.6% · NYY 43.4% | PHI 0–NYY 1 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Nationals Fri, Jul 24 | WSH 59.7% · ARI 40.3% | WSH 2–ARI 3 | Miss |
| Braves at Orioles Fri, Jul 24 | BAL 54.2% · ATL 45.8% | BAL 6–ATL 7 | Miss |
| Guardians at Rays Fri, Jul 24 | TB 54.8% · CLE 45.2% | TB 11–CLE 3 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Mets Fri, Jul 24 | NYM 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | NYM 2–LAD 4 | Miss |
| Padres at Marlins Fri, Jul 24 | MIA 53.2% · SD 46.8% | MIA 2–SD 4 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Red Sox Fri, Jul 24 | BOS 54.5% · TOR 45.5% | BOS 6–TOR 4 | Hit |
| Astros at Chicago White Sox Fri, Jul 24 | CWS 54.9% · HOU 45.1% | CWS 5–HOU 9 | Miss |
| Mariners at Rangers Sat, Jul 25 | TEX 55.7% · SEA 44.3% | TEX 5–SEA 4 | Hit |
| Athletics at Twins Sat, Jul 25 | MIN 53.4% · OAK 46.6% | MIN 0–OAK 2 | Miss |
| Reds at Cardinals Sat, Jul 25 | STL 52.6% · CIN 47.4% | STL 2–CIN 4 | Miss |
| Angels at Giants Sat, Jul 25 | SF 56.3% · LAA 43.7% | SF 7–LAA 6 | Hit |
| Royals at Tigers Sat, Jul 25 | DET 54.6% · KC 45.4% | DET 2–KC 3 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Nationals Sat, Jul 25 | WSH 58.0% · ARI 42.0% | WSH 5–ARI 3 | Hit |
| Angels at Giants Sat, Jul 25 | SF 56.3% · LAA 43.7% | SF 9–LAA 2 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Red Sox Sat, Jul 25 | BOS 52.8% · TOR 47.3% | BOS 0–TOR 6 | Miss |
| Padres at Marlins Sat, Jul 25 | MIA 53.2% · SD 46.8% | MIA 2–SD 7 | Miss |
| Yankees at Phillies Sat, Jul 25 | PHI 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | PHI 1–NYY 3 | Miss |
| Guardians at Rays Sat, Jul 25 | TB 54.8% · CLE 45.2% | TB 3–CLE 0 | Hit |
| Cubs at Pirates Sat, Jul 25 | PIT 55.5% · CHC 44.5% | PIT 0–CHC 11 | Miss |
| Braves at Orioles Sat, Jul 25 | BAL 54.2% · ATL 45.8% | BAL 3–ATL 2 | Hit |
| Rockies at Brewers Sat, Jul 25 | MIL 56.2% · COL 43.8% | MIL 8–COL 5 | Hit |
| Athletics at Twins Sat, Jul 25 | MIN 55.2% · OAK 44.8% | MIN 2–OAK 0 | Hit |
| Astros at Chicago White Sox Sat, Jul 25 | CWS 54.9% · HOU 45.1% | CWS 1–HOU 4 | Miss |
| Mariners at Rangers Sat, Jul 25 | TEX 55.7% · SEA 44.3% | TEX 7–SEA 1 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Mets Sat, Jul 25 | NYM 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | NYM 3–LAD 4 | Miss |
| Reds at Cardinals Sat, Jul 25 | STL 54.3% · CIN 45.7% | STL 7–CIN 0 | Hit |
| Guardians at Rays Sun, Jul 26 | TB 54.8% · CLE 45.2% | TB 1–CLE 0 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Nationals Sun, Jul 26 | WSH 58.0% · ARI 42.0% | WSH 10–ARI 7 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Red Sox Sun, Jul 26 | BOS 52.8% · TOR 47.3% | BOS 6–TOR 1 | Hit |
| Braves at Orioles Sun, Jul 26 | BAL 54.2% · ATL 45.8% | BAL 2–ATL 3 | Miss |
| Cubs at Pirates Sun, Jul 26 | PIT 55.5% · CHC 44.5% | PIT 8–CHC 7 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Mets Sun, Jul 26 | NYM 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | NYM 8–LAD 3 | Hit |
| Royals at Tigers Sun, Jul 26 | DET 54.6% · KC 45.4% | DET 4–KC 5 | Miss |
| Padres at Marlins Sun, Jul 26 | MIA 53.2% · SD 46.8% | MIA 3–SD 5 | Miss |
| Athletics at Twins Sun, Jul 26 | MIN 55.2% · OAK 44.8% | MIN 11–OAK 8 | Hit |
| Astros at Chicago White Sox Sun, Jul 26 | CWS 54.9% · HOU 45.1% | CWS 12–HOU 3 | Hit |
| Rockies at Brewers Sun, Jul 26 | MIL 56.2% · COL 43.8% | MIL 11–COL 2 | Hit |
| Reds at Cardinals Sun, Jul 26 | STL 54.3% · CIN 45.7% | STL 3–CIN 5 | Miss |
| Mariners at Rangers Sun, Jul 26 | TEX 55.7% · SEA 44.3% | TEX 4–SEA 6 | Miss |
| Angels at Giants Sun, Jul 26 | SF 56.3% · LAA 43.7% | SF 3–LAA 4 | Miss |
| Yankees at Phillies Sun, Jul 26 | PHI 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | PHI 11–NYY 4 | Hit |
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