St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Angels 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Angels:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: LAA 52% (−3)
Win probability movement
LAA home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Angels defeated the Cardinals 3-2.
Our model predicted the Angels would win with 55% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Angels and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- ELO Rating was neutral and a contributing factor: Angels ELO 1475 vs Cardinals ELO 1473 (diff: +3)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No offensive stats available for comparison
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Angels won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Los Angeles Angels
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Cardinals
Angels
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Angels has a 55% win probability, while Cardinals has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, California.