Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 61% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Phillies:
- Rest Days. Phillies rest advantage (1 day rest) over Dodgers (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the rest edge were neutral: PHI 56% (−5)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: PHI 58% (−3)
Win probability movement
PHI home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Phillies defeated the Dodgers 10-7.
Our model predicted the Phillies would win with 61% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Rest Days favored the Phillies and was a major factor: Phillies rest advantage (1 day rest) over Dodgers (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Phillies and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Injuries was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar injury situations: Phillies (0 out) vs Dodgers (0 out)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Phillies won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Rest DaysFavors Philadelphia Phillies
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Philadelphia Phillies
- InjuriesNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest Days
Phillies rest advantage (1 day rest) over Dodgers (back-to-back)
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Dodgers
No player data available
Phillies
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Phillies has a 61% win probability, while Dodgers has a 39% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.