NHL report card: week of 2026-04-13 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
59.0%
hit rate
0.247
Brier score
23 of 39 decided
Season to date
52.8%
hit rate
0.252
Brier score
216 of 409 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Canucks at DucksANA 69.1% pre-game — final ANA 3–VAN 4
- Sharks at JetsWPG 62.3% pre-game — final WPG 1–SJS 6
- Blues at Utah Hockey ClubUTA 62.0% pre-game — final UTA 3–STL 5
- Canadiens at LightningTBL 60.7% pre-game — final TBL 3–MTL 4
- Hurricanes at IslandersNYI 58.1% pre-game — final NYI 1–CAR 2
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Jets at Utah Hockey ClubUTA 66.6% pre-game — final UTA 5–WPG 3
- Kings at AvalancheCOL 66.0% pre-game — final COL 2–LAK 1
- Canucks at OilersEDM 64.1% pre-game — final EDM 6–VAN 1
- Devils at BruinsBOS 59.5% pre-game — final BOS 4–NJD 0
- Maple Leafs at SenatorsOTT 58.4% pre-game — final OTT 3–TOR 1
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canucks at Ducks Mon, Apr 13 | ANA 69.1% · VAN 30.9% | ANA 3–VAN 4 | Miss |
| Utah Hockey Club at Flames Mon, Apr 13 | CGY 50.8% · UTA 49.2% | CGY 4–UTA 1 | Hit |
| Hurricanes at Flyers Mon, Apr 13 | PHI 56.3% · CAR 43.7% | PHI 3–CAR 2 | Hit |
| Red Wings at Lightning Mon, Apr 13 | TBL 56.3% · DET 43.7% | TBL 4–DET 3 | Hit |
| Rangers at Panthers Mon, Apr 13 | FLA 56.3% · NYR 43.7% | FLA 3–NYR 2 | Hit |
| Stars at Maple Leafs Mon, Apr 13 | TOR 56.3% · DAL 43.7% | TOR 5–DAL 6 | Miss |
| Wild at Blues Tue, Apr 14 | STL 56.3% · MIN 43.7% | STL 6–MIN 3 | Hit |
| Sharks at Predators Tue, Apr 14 | NSH 57.1% · SJS 42.9% | NSH 2–SJS 3 | Miss |
| Sabres at Blackhawks Tue, Apr 14 | CHI 56.8% · BUF 43.2% | CHI 1–BUF 5 | Miss |
| Kings at Kraken Tue, Apr 14 | SEA 56.3% · LAK 43.7% | SEA 3–LAK 5 | Miss |
| Avalanche at Oilers Tue, Apr 14 | EDM 48.6% · COL 51.4% | EDM 1–COL 2 | Hit |
| Jets at Golden Knights Tue, Apr 14 | VGK 58.2% · WPG 41.8% | VGK 6–WPG 2 | Hit |
| Canadiens at Flyers Tue, Apr 14 | PHI 54.6% · MTL 45.4% | PHI 4–MTL 2 | Hit |
| Hurricanes at Islanders Tue, Apr 14 | NYI 58.1% · CAR 41.9% | NYI 1–CAR 2 | Miss |
| Devils at Bruins Tue, Apr 14 | BOS 59.5% · NJD 40.6% | BOS 4–NJD 0 | Hit |
| Capitals at Blue Jackets Tue, Apr 14 | CBJ 54.8% · WSH 45.2% | CBJ 1–WSH 2 | Miss |
| Ducks at Wild Wed, Apr 15 | MIN 54.6% · ANA 45.4% | MIN 3–ANA 2 | Hit |
| Jets at Utah Hockey Club Wed, Apr 15 | UTA 66.6% · WPG 33.4% | UTA 5–WPG 3 | Hit |
| Avalanche at Flames Wed, Apr 15 | CGY 53.0% · COL 47.0% | CGY 1–COL 3 | Miss |
| Penguins at Blues Wed, Apr 15 | STL 54.6% · PIT 45.4% | STL 7–PIT 5 | Hit |
| Kings at Canucks Wed, Apr 15 | VAN 53.2% · LAK 46.8% | VAN 4–LAK 3 | Hit |
| Red Wings at Panthers Wed, Apr 15 | FLA 56.3% · DET 43.7% | FLA 8–DET 1 | Hit |
| Stars at Sabres Wed, Apr 15 | BUF 56.3% · DAL 43.7% | BUF 3–DAL 4 | Miss |
| Rangers at Lightning Wed, Apr 15 | TBL 56.3% · NYR 43.7% | TBL 2–NYR 4 | Miss |
| Maple Leafs at Senators Wed, Apr 15 | OTT 58.4% · TOR 41.6% | OTT 3–TOR 1 | Hit |
| Sharks at Blackhawks Thu, Apr 16 | CHI 56.3% · SJS 43.7% | CHI 5–SJS 2 | Hit |
| Kraken at Golden Knights Thu, Apr 16 | VGK 56.3% · SEA 43.7% | VGK 4–SEA 1 | Hit |
| Blues at Utah Hockey Club Thu, Apr 16 | UTA 62.0% · STL 38.0% | UTA 3–STL 5 | Miss |
| Sharks at Jets Fri, Apr 17 | WPG 62.3% · SJS 37.7% | WPG 1–SJS 6 | Miss |
| Ducks at Predators Fri, Apr 17 | NSH 54.5% · ANA 45.5% | NSH 4–ANA 5 | Miss |
| Canucks at Oilers Fri, Apr 17 | EDM 64.1% · VAN 35.9% | EDM 6–VAN 1 | Hit |
| Kings at Flames Fri, Apr 17 | CGY 57.0% · LAK 43.0% | CGY 3–LAK 1 | Hit |
| Kraken at Avalanche Fri, Apr 17 | COL 58.1% · SEA 41.9% | COL 2–SEA 0 | Hit |
| Senators at Hurricanes Sat, Apr 18 | CAR 56.8% · OTT 43.2% | CAR 2–OTT 0 | Hit |
| Wild at Stars Sat, Apr 18 | DAL 55.9% · MIN 44.1% | DAL 1–MIN 6 | Miss |
| Flyers at Penguins Sun, Apr 19 | PIT 57.2% · PHI 42.8% | PIT 2–PHI 3 | Miss |
| Kings at Avalanche Sun, Apr 19 | COL 66.0% · LAK 34.1% | COL 2–LAK 1 | Hit |
| Canadiens at Lightning Sun, Apr 19 | TBL 60.7% · MTL 39.3% | TBL 3–MTL 4 | Miss |
| Bruins at Sabres Sun, Apr 19 | BUF 56.3% · BOS 43.7% | BUF 4–BOS 3 | Hit |
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