New Jersey Devils at Boston Bruins
Boston Bruins 59% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Bruins:
- Home Field Advantage. Bruins are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency. Bruins offense (3.3 PPG) outpaces Devils (2.5 PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: BOS 55% (−4)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: BOS 56% (−3)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: BOS 58% (−1)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: BOS 59% (0)
Win probability movement
BOS home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Bruins defeated the Devils 4-0.
Our model predicted the Bruins would win with 59% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Bruins and was a notable factor: Bruins are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Bruins and was a contributing factor: Bruins offense (3.3 PPG) outpaces Devils (2.5 PPG)
- Recent Form was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar form: Bruins (34-22) vs Devils (31-29)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Bruins won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Boston Bruins
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Boston Bruins
- Recent FormNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Devils
Bruins
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Bruins has a 59% win probability, while Devils has a 41% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at TD Garden in Boston, MA.