Colorado Avalanche at Edmonton Oilers
Colorado Avalanche 51% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Avalanche:
- Defensive Efficiency. Avalanche defense (2.4 Opp PPG) better than Oilers (3.4 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Avalanche (42-10) in better form than Oilers (30-25)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: COL 54% (+3)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: COL 48% (−3)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: COL 48% (−3)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: COL 50% (−1)
Win probability movement
EDM home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Avalanche defeated the Oilers 2-1.
Our model predicted the Avalanche would win with 51% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Oilers and was a notable factor: Oilers are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Avalanche and was a contributing factor: Avalanche defense (2.4 Opp PPG) better than Oilers (3.4 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Avalanche and was a contributing factor: Avalanche (42-10) in better form than Oilers (30-25)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Avalanche won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Edmonton Oilers
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Recent FormFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Avalanche
Oilers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Oilers has a 49% win probability, while Avalanche has a 51% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB.