Dallas Stars at Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto Maple Leafs 56% to win. The biggest signal favoring Maple Leafs:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TOR 52% (−4)
Win probability movement
TOR home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Stars defeated the Maple Leafs 6-5.
Our model predicted the Maple Leafs would win with 56% confidence, but the Stars won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Maple Leafs and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Injuries was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar injury situations: Maple Leafs (0 out) vs Stars (0 out)
- Rest Days was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar rest: Maple Leafs (2 days rest) vs Stars (2 days rest)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Stars won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Stars
Maple Leafs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Maple Leafs has a 56% win probability, while Stars has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.