NFL weekly recap: 2026 week 3
Hit rate this week: 44% across 16 games; season-to-date: 54%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 76% — final GB 14–ATL 35
- Injuries (favors GB)
- Home Field Advantage (favors GB)
- ELO Rating (favors GB)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons at Packers Fri, Sep 25 | GB 76% • ATL 24% | GB 14–ATL 35 | Miss |
| Titans at Giants Sun, Sep 27 | NYG 45% • TEN 55% | NYG 12–TEN 7 | Miss |
| Chargers at Bills Sun, Sep 27 | BUF 74% • LAC 26% | BUF 24–LAC 16 | Hit |
| Bengals at Steelers Sun, Sep 27 | PIT 40% • CIN 60% | PIT 30–CIN 27 | Miss |
| Seahawks at Commanders Sun, Sep 27 | WSH 53% • SEA 48% | WSH 33–SEA 31 | Hit |
| Chiefs at Dolphins Sun, Sep 27 | MIA 35% • KC 65% | MIA 10–KC 24 | Hit |
| Panthers at Browns Sun, Sep 27 | CLE 62% • CAR 38% | CLE 21–CAR 18 | Hit |
| Texans at Colts Sun, Sep 27 | IND 42% • HOU 58% | IND 19–HOU 17 | Miss |
| Patriots at Jaguars Sun, Sep 27 | JAX 70% • NE 30% | JAX 35–NE 6 | Hit |
| Jets at Lions Sun, Sep 27 | DET 46% • NYJ 54% | DET 31–NYJ 24 | Miss |
| Vikings at Buccaneers Sun, Sep 27 | TB 53% • MIN 47% | TB 16–MIN 23 | Miss |
| Cardinals at 49ers Sun, Sep 27 | SF 50% • ARI 50% | SF 36–ARI 30 | Hit |
| Ravens at Cowboys Sun, Sep 27 | DAL 55% • BAL 45% | DAL 31–BAL 34 | Miss |
| Raiders at Saints Sun, Sep 27 | NO 48% • LV 52% | NO 27–LV 35 | Hit |
| Rams at Broncos Mon, Sep 28 | DEN 44% • LAR 56% | DEN 30–LAR 26 | Miss |
| Eagles at Bears Tue, Sep 29 | CHI 50% • PHI 50% | CHI 27–PHI 7 | Miss |