Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars 62% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Jaguars:
- Home Field Advantage. Jaguars are 3-0 at home this season; Colts are 1-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating. Jaguars ELO 1568 vs Colts ELO 1431 (diff: +138)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Colts at Jaguars
The Colts visit the Jaguars at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, FL in NFL regular season Week 8 action.
Our model gives the Jaguars a 62% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. The Colts will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Jaguars (medium): Jaguars are 3-0 at home this season; Colts are 1-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating favors the Jaguars (medium): Jaguars ELO 1568 vs Colts ELO 1431 (diff: +138)
- Turnover Differential is neutral: Jaguars turnover differential (+0) vs Colts (+0)
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Jacksonville Jaguars
- ELO RatingFavors Jacksonville Jaguars
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
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Other
Medium impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Colts
Jaguars
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Jaguars has a 62% win probability, while Colts has a 38% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, FL.