NBA
NBA surprises: lower-rated teams that won
2026-27 season. Finished games where the team the model rated lower before kickoff won. Ranked by that winner's pre-game win probability, lowest first. Only games with a real pre-game assessment are listed.
The model's favourite has won 22 of 36 decided games this season (61.1%). Same rules as the accuracy page; preseason is excluded.
This week
| Date | Matchup | Winner pre-game | Final | Top factor for the other side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 25 | HOU at ATL Rockets at Hawks | HOU 8.6% | ATL 114–HOU 121 | Defensive Efficiency Hawks defense (103.0 Opp PPG) better than Rockets (110.0 Opp PPG) |
| Fri, Oct 23 | DAL at IND Mavericks at Pacers | DAL 10.4% | IND 105–DAL 121 | Defensive Efficiency Pacers defense (120.0 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (128.0 Opp PPG) |
| Wed, Oct 21 | OKC at SAS Thunder at Spurs | OKC 10.5% | SAS 104–OKC 116 | Defensive Efficiency Spurs defense (108.8 Opp PPG) better than Thunder (117.0 Opp PPG) |
| Fri, Oct 23 | CHI at MIL Bulls at Bucks | CHI 14.2% | MIL 125–CHI 132 | Defensive Efficiency Bucks defense (128.0 Opp PPG) better than Bulls (135.0 Opp PPG) |
| Tue, Oct 20 | BOS at DET Celtics at Pistons | DET 22.2% | DET 121–BOS 113 | Offensive Efficiency Celtics offense (126.8 PPG) outpaces Pistons (118.5 PPG) |
| Sat, Oct 24 | NOP at UTA Pelicans at Jazz | UTA 23.0% | UTA 120–NOP 119 | Offensive Efficiency Pelicans offense (120.0 PPG) outpaces Jazz (103.0 PPG) |
| Thu, Oct 22 | IND at NOP Pacers at Pelicans | IND 25.1% | NOP 120–IND 123 | Injuries Pelicans healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Pacers 3 out, 0 doubtful |
| Wed, Oct 21 | CHA at BKN Hornets at Nets | CHA 28.9% | BKN 103–CHA 110 | Injuries Nets healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Hornets 4 out, 0 doubtful |
| Wed, Oct 21 | MIN at MIA Timberwolves at Heat | MIN 37.2% | MIA 106–MIN 131 | Injuries Heat healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Timberwolves 1 out, 0 doubtful |
| Sun, Oct 25 | GSW at PHX Warriors at Suns | PHX 37.6% | PHX 131–GSW 122 | Offensive Efficiency Warriors offense (106.5 PPG) outpaces Suns (83.0 PPG) |
| Sat, Oct 24 | MIA at CHA Heat at Hornets | CHA 40.0% | CHA 115–MIA 110 | Offensive Efficiency Heat offense (108.5 PPG) outpaces Hornets (95.5 PPG) |
| Wed, Oct 21 | MIL at WSH Bucks at Wizards | WSH 40.0% | WSH 128–MIL 116 | Injuries Bucks healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Wizards 3 out, 0 doubtful |
| Sun, Oct 25 | SAS at DAL Spurs at Mavericks | SAS 44.5% | DAL 106–SAS 122 | Offensive Efficiency Mavericks offense (115.5 PPG) outpaces Spurs (107.0 PPG) |
| Fri, Oct 23 | DEN at OKC Nuggets at Thunder | OKC 48.3% | OKC 96–DEN 84 | Defensive Efficiency Nuggets defense (0.0 Opp PPG) better than Thunder (104.0 Opp PPG) |
Season list
| Date | Matchup | Winner pre-game | Final | Top factor for the other side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 25 | HOU at ATL Rockets at Hawks | HOU 8.6% | ATL 114–HOU 121 | Defensive Efficiency Hawks defense (103.0 Opp PPG) better than Rockets (110.0 Opp PPG) |
| Fri, Oct 23 | DAL at IND Mavericks at Pacers | DAL 10.4% | IND 105–DAL 121 | Defensive Efficiency Pacers defense (120.0 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (128.0 Opp PPG) |
| Wed, Oct 21 | OKC at SAS Thunder at Spurs | OKC 10.5% | SAS 104–OKC 116 | Defensive Efficiency Spurs defense (108.8 Opp PPG) better than Thunder (117.0 Opp PPG) |
| Fri, Oct 23 | CHI at MIL Bulls at Bucks | CHI 14.2% | MIL 125–CHI 132 | Defensive Efficiency Bucks defense (128.0 Opp PPG) better than Bulls (135.0 Opp PPG) |
| Tue, Oct 20 | BOS at DET Celtics at Pistons | DET 22.2% | DET 121–BOS 113 | Offensive Efficiency Celtics offense (126.8 PPG) outpaces Pistons (118.5 PPG) |
| Sat, Oct 24 | NOP at UTA Pelicans at Jazz | UTA 23.0% | UTA 120–NOP 119 | Offensive Efficiency Pelicans offense (120.0 PPG) outpaces Jazz (103.0 PPG) |
| Thu, Oct 22 | IND at NOP Pacers at Pelicans | IND 25.1% | NOP 120–IND 123 | Injuries Pelicans healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Pacers 3 out, 0 doubtful |
| Wed, Oct 21 | CHA at BKN Hornets at Nets | CHA 28.9% | BKN 103–CHA 110 | Injuries Nets healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Hornets 4 out, 0 doubtful |
| Wed, Oct 21 | MIN at MIA Timberwolves at Heat | MIN 37.2% | MIA 106–MIN 131 | Injuries Heat healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Timberwolves 1 out, 0 doubtful |
| Sun, Oct 25 | GSW at PHX Warriors at Suns | PHX 37.6% | PHX 131–GSW 122 | Offensive Efficiency Warriors offense (106.5 PPG) outpaces Suns (83.0 PPG) |
| Sat, Oct 24 | MIA at CHA Heat at Hornets | CHA 40.0% | CHA 115–MIA 110 | Offensive Efficiency Heat offense (108.5 PPG) outpaces Hornets (95.5 PPG) |
| Wed, Oct 21 | MIL at WSH Bucks at Wizards | WSH 40.0% | WSH 128–MIL 116 | Injuries Bucks healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Wizards 3 out, 0 doubtful |
| Sun, Oct 25 | SAS at DAL Spurs at Mavericks | SAS 44.5% | DAL 106–SAS 122 | Offensive Efficiency Mavericks offense (115.5 PPG) outpaces Spurs (107.0 PPG) |
| Fri, Oct 23 | DEN at OKC Nuggets at Thunder | OKC 48.3% | OKC 96–DEN 84 | Defensive Efficiency Nuggets defense (0.0 Opp PPG) better than Thunder (104.0 Opp PPG) |
Showing 1–14 of 14 surprises