NBA report card: week of 2026-04-13 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
61.9%
hit rate
0.233
Brier score
13 of 21 decided
Season to date
69.1%
hit rate
0.195
Brier score
273 of 395 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Suns at ThunderOKC 87.6% pre-game — final OKC 103–PHX 135
- Magic at PistonsDET 81.1% pre-game — final DET 101–ORL 112
- Nuggets at SpursSAS 69.6% pre-game — final SAS 118–DEN 128
- Trail Blazers at SunsPHX 68.6% pre-game — final PHX 110–POR 114
- Hornets at MagicCHA 56.2% pre-game — final ORL 121–CHA 90
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Suns at ThunderOKC 87.8% pre-game — final OKC 119–PHX 84
- Kings at Trail BlazersPOR 84.8% pre-game — final POR 122–SAC 110
- Pelicans at TimberwolvesMIN 81.3% pre-game — final MIN 132–NOP 126
- Jazz at LakersLAL 79.3% pre-game — final LAL 131–UTA 107
- Grizzlies at RocketsHOU 75.3% pre-game — final HOU 132–MEM 101
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuggets at Spurs Mon, Apr 13 | SAS 69.6% · DEN 30.4% | SAS 118–DEN 128 | Miss |
| Grizzlies at Rockets Mon, Apr 13 | HOU 75.3% · MEM 24.7% | HOU 132–MEM 101 | Hit |
| Bulls at Mavericks Mon, Apr 13 | DAL 50.3% · CHI 49.7% | DAL 149–CHI 128 | Hit |
| Suns at Thunder Mon, Apr 13 | OKC 87.6% · PHX 12.4% | OKC 103–PHX 135 | Miss |
| Kings at Trail Blazers Mon, Apr 13 | POR 84.8% · SAC 15.2% | POR 122–SAC 110 | Hit |
| Warriors at Clippers Mon, Apr 13 | LAC 55.9% · GSW 44.1% | LAC 115–GSW 110 | Hit |
| Jazz at Lakers Mon, Apr 13 | LAL 79.3% · UTA 20.7% | LAL 131–UTA 107 | Hit |
| Pelicans at Timberwolves Mon, Apr 13 | MIN 81.3% · NOP 18.7% | MIN 132–NOP 126 | Hit |
| Heat at Hornets Tue, Apr 14 | CHA 59.7% · MIA 40.3% | CHA 127–MIA 126 | Hit |
| Trail Blazers at Suns Wed, Apr 15 | PHX 68.6% · POR 31.4% | PHX 110–POR 114 | Miss |
| Magic at 76ers Wed, Apr 15 | PHI 49.5% · ORL 50.5% | PHI 109–ORL 97 | Miss |
| Warriors at Clippers Thu, Apr 16 | LAC 55.9% · GSW 44.1% | LAC 121–GSW 126 | Miss |
| Hornets at Magic Fri, Apr 17 | ORL 43.8% · CHA 56.2% | ORL 121–CHA 90 | Miss |
| Warriors at Suns Sat, Apr 18 | PHX 61.3% · GSW 38.7% | PHX 111–GSW 96 | Hit |
| Raptors at Cavaliers Sat, Apr 18 | CLE 66.2% · TOR 33.8% | CLE 126–TOR 113 | Hit |
| Timberwolves at Nuggets Sat, Apr 18 | DEN 57.4% · MIN 42.6% | DEN 116–MIN 105 | Hit |
| Hawks at Knicks Sat, Apr 18 | NYK 74.9% · ATL 25.1% | NYK 113–ATL 102 | Hit |
| Rockets at Lakers Sun, Apr 19 | LAL 47.4% · HOU 52.6% | LAL 107–HOU 98 | Miss |
| 76ers at Celtics Sun, Apr 19 | BOS 74.7% · PHI 25.4% | BOS 123–PHI 91 | Hit |
| Suns at Thunder Sun, Apr 19 | OKC 87.8% · PHX 12.2% | OKC 119–PHX 84 | Hit |
| Magic at Pistons Sun, Apr 19 | DET 81.1% · ORL 18.9% | DET 101–ORL 112 | Miss |
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