Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder 88% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Thunder:
- Offensive Efficiency. Thunder offense (118.5 PPG) outpaces Suns (112.2 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency. Thunder defense (107.5 Opp PPG) better than Suns (111.2 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Thunder (56-15) in better form than Suns (39-32)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: OKC 71% (−17)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: OKC 77% (−11)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: OKC 81% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: OKC 82% (−6)
Win probability movement
OKC home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Suns defeated the Thunder 135-103.
Our model predicted the Thunder would win with 88% confidence, but the Suns won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Thunder and was a major factor: Thunder offense (118.5 PPG) outpaces Suns (112.2 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Thunder and was a major factor: Thunder defense (107.5 Opp PPG) better than Suns (111.2 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Thunder and was a notable factor: Thunder (56-15) in better form than Suns (39-32)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Suns won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Recent FormFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Thunder offense (118.5 PPG) outpaces Suns (112.2 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Thunder defense (107.5 Opp PPG) better than Suns (111.2 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Thunder (56-15) in better form than Suns (39-32)
Turnover Differential
Thunder turnover differential (+0) vs Suns (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
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Key Players
Suns
Thunder
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Thunder has a 88% win probability, while Suns has a 12% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK.