Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons 81% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Pistons:
- Defensive Efficiency. Pistons defense (109.5 Opp PPG) better than Magic (114.3 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Pistons offense (117.4 PPG) outpaces Magic (115.5 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Pistons are 0-0 at home this season
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: DET 65% (−16)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: DET 73% (−8)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DET 75% (−6)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: DET 75% (−6)
Win probability movement
DET home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Magic defeated the Pistons 112-101.
Our model predicted the Pistons would win with 81% confidence, but the Magic won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Pistons and was a major factor: Pistons defense (109.5 Opp PPG) better than Magic (114.3 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Pistons and was a notable factor: Pistons offense (117.4 PPG) outpaces Magic (115.5 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Pistons and was a notable factor: Pistons are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Magic won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Detroit Pistons
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Detroit Pistons
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Detroit Pistons
- Recent FormFavors Detroit Pistons
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Pistons defense (109.5 Opp PPG) better than Magic (114.3 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Pistons offense (117.4 PPG) outpaces Magic (115.5 PPG)
Recent Form
Pistons (51-19) in better form than Magic (38-32)
Turnover Differential
Pistons turnover differential (+0) vs Magic (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Magic
Pistons
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Pistons has a 81% win probability, while Magic has a 19% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, MI.