Orlando Magic at Philadelphia 76ers
Orlando Magic 51% to win. The biggest signal favoring Magic:
- Defensive Efficiency. Magic defense (114.3 Opp PPG) better than 76ers (116.1 Opp PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: ORL 44% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: ORL 54% (+3)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: ORL 51% (0)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: ORL 50% (−1)
Win probability movement
PHI home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The 76ers defeated the Magic 109-97.
Our model predicted the Magic would win with 51% confidence, but the 76ers won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Magic and was a notable factor: Magic defense (114.3 Opp PPG) better than 76ers (116.1 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the 76ers and was a notable factor: 76ers are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar offensive efficiency (115.6 vs 115.5 PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
76ers won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Orlando Magic
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Philadelphia 76ers
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Magic
76ers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
76ers has a 49% win probability, while Magic has a 51% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, PA.