Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland Cavaliers 66% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Cavaliers:
- Offensive Efficiency. Cavaliers offense (119.1 PPG) outpaces Raptors (114.0 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Cavaliers are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form. Cavaliers (44-27) in better form than Raptors (39-30)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: CLE 48% (−18)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: CLE 71% (+5)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CLE 60% (−6)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: CLE 63% (−3)
Win probability movement
CLE home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Cavaliers defeated the Raptors 126-113.
Our model predicted the Cavaliers would win with 66% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Cavaliers and was a major factor: Cavaliers offense (119.1 PPG) outpaces Raptors (114.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Raptors and was a notable factor: Raptors defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Cavaliers (114.7 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Cavaliers and was a notable factor: Cavaliers are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Cavaliers won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Cleveland Cavaliers
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Toronto Raptors
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Cleveland Cavaliers
- Recent FormFavors Cleveland Cavaliers
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Cavaliers offense (119.1 PPG) outpaces Raptors (114.0 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Raptors defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Cavaliers (114.7 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Cavaliers (44-27) in better form than Raptors (39-30)
Turnover Differential
Cavaliers turnover differential (+0) vs Raptors (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Raptors
Cavaliers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Cavaliers has a 66% win probability, while Raptors has a 34% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Rocket Arena in Cleveland, OH.