NBA report card: week of 2026-03-02 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
70.6%
hit rate
0.213
Brier score
12 of 17 decided
Season to date
69.1%
hit rate
0.195
Brier score
273 of 395 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Spurs at NetsSAS 85.4% pre-game — final BKN 138–SAS 118
- Hornets at CelticsBOS 74.6% pre-game — final BOS 89–CHA 118
- Knicks at LakersNYK 67.0% pre-game — final LAL 110–NYK 97
- Trail Blazers at GrizzliesMEM 60.1% pre-game — final MEM 114–POR 122
- Celtics at CavaliersCLE 56.3% pre-game — final CLE 98–BOS 109
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Kings at LakersLAL 88.9% pre-game — final LAL 128–SAC 104
- Warriors at ThunderOKC 87.3% pre-game — final OKC 104–GSW 97
- Suns at KingsPHX 78.0% pre-game — final SAC 103–PHX 114
- Celtics at BucksBOS 76.8% pre-game — final MIL 81–BOS 108
- Pelicans at LakersLAL 76.7% pre-game — final LAL 110–NOP 101
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kings at Lakers Mon, Mar 2 | LAL 88.9% · SAC 11.1% | LAL 128–SAC 104 | Hit |
| Celtics at Bucks Tue, Mar 3 | MIL 23.2% · BOS 76.8% | MIL 81–BOS 108 | Hit |
| Knicks at Raptors Wed, Mar 4 | TOR 40.5% · NYK 59.5% | TOR 95–NYK 111 | Hit |
| Pelicans at Lakers Wed, Mar 4 | LAL 76.7% · NOP 23.3% | LAL 110–NOP 101 | Hit |
| Suns at Kings Wed, Mar 4 | SAC 22.0% · PHX 78.0% | SAC 103–PHX 114 | Hit |
| Thunder at Knicks Thu, Mar 5 | NYK 35.3% · OKC 64.7% | NYK 100–OKC 103 | Hit |
| Hornets at Celtics Thu, Mar 5 | BOS 74.6% · CHA 25.4% | BOS 89–CHA 118 | Miss |
| Trail Blazers at Grizzlies Thu, Mar 5 | MEM 60.1% · POR 39.9% | MEM 114–POR 122 | Miss |
| Pelicans at Kings Fri, Mar 6 | SAC 32.7% · NOP 67.3% | SAC 123–NOP 133 | Hit |
| Pelicans at Suns Sat, Mar 7 | PHX 72.4% · NOP 27.6% | PHX 118–NOP 116 | Hit |
| Jazz at Bucks Sun, Mar 8 | MIL 58.8% · UTA 41.2% | MIL 113–UTA 99 | Hit |
| Warriors at Thunder Sun, Mar 8 | OKC 87.3% · GSW 12.7% | OKC 104–GSW 97 | Hit |
| Celtics at Cavaliers Sun, Mar 8 | CLE 56.3% · BOS 43.7% | CLE 98–BOS 109 | Miss |
| Knicks at Lakers Sun, Mar 8 | LAL 33.0% · NYK 67.0% | LAL 110–NYK 97 | Miss |
| Pistons at Heat Sun, Mar 8 | MIA 56.3% · DET 43.7% | MIA 121–DET 110 | Hit |
| Mavericks at Raptors Sun, Mar 8 | TOR 56.3% · DAL 43.7% | TOR 122–DAL 92 | Hit |
| Spurs at Nets Sun, Mar 8 | BKN 14.6% · SAS 85.4% | BKN 138–SAS 118 | Miss |
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