New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings
New Orleans Pelicans 67% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Pelicans:
- Offensive Efficiency. Pelicans offense (115.1 PPG) outpaces Kings (110.3 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency. Pelicans defense (120.2 Opp PPG) better than Kings (121.1 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Pelicans (19-44) in better form than Kings (14-49)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: NOP 50% (−17)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: NOP 68% (+1)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: NOP 62% (−5)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: NOP 62% (−5)
Win probability movement
SAC home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Pelicans defeated the Kings 133-123.
Our model predicted the Pelicans would win with 67% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Pelicans and was a major factor: Pelicans offense (115.1 PPG) outpaces Kings (110.3 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Kings and was a notable factor: Kings are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Pelicans and was a contributing factor: Pelicans defense (120.2 Opp PPG) better than Kings (121.1 Opp PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Pelicans won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors New Orleans Pelicans
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Sacramento Kings
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors New Orleans Pelicans
- Recent FormFavors New Orleans Pelicans
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Pelicans offense (115.1 PPG) outpaces Kings (110.3 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Pelicans defense (120.2 Opp PPG) better than Kings (121.1 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Pelicans (19-44) in better form than Kings (14-49)
Turnover Differential
Kings turnover differential (+0) vs Pelicans (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Pelicans
Kings
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Kings has a 33% win probability, while Pelicans has a 67% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, CA.