Oklahoma City Thunder at New York Knicks
Oklahoma City Thunder 65% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Thunder:
- Defensive Efficiency. Thunder defense (107.9 Opp PPG) better than Knicks (110.9 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Thunder offense (119.1 PPG) outpaces Knicks (117.2 PPG)
- Recent Form. Thunder (48-15) in better form than Knicks (40-22)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: OKC 53% (−12)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: OKC 56% (−9)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: OKC 65% (0)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: OKC 60% (−5)
Win probability movement
NYK home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Thunder defeated the Knicks 103-100.
Our model predicted the Thunder would win with 65% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Thunder and was a notable factor: Thunder defense (107.9 Opp PPG) better than Knicks (110.9 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Thunder and was a notable factor: Thunder offense (119.1 PPG) outpaces Knicks (117.2 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Knicks and was a notable factor: Knicks are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Thunder won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New York Knicks
- Recent FormFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Thunder
Knicks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Knicks has a 35% win probability, while Thunder has a 65% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY.