Utah Jazz at Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks 59% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Bucks:
- Defensive Efficiency. Bucks defense (115.8 Opp PPG) better than Jazz (125.2 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Bucks are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form. Bucks (26-35) in better form than Jazz (19-44)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: MIL 74% (+15)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: MIL 39% (−20)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MIL 54% (−5)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: MIL 56% (−3)
Win probability movement
MIL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Bucks defeated the Jazz 113-99.
Our model predicted the Bucks would win with 59% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Jazz and was a major factor: Jazz offense (117.6 PPG) outpaces Bucks (111.4 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Bucks and was a major factor: Bucks defense (115.8 Opp PPG) better than Jazz (125.2 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Bucks and was a notable factor: Bucks are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Bucks won convincingly
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Utah Jazz
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Milwaukee Bucks
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Milwaukee Bucks
- Recent FormFavors Milwaukee Bucks
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Jazz offense (117.6 PPG) outpaces Bucks (111.4 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Bucks defense (115.8 Opp PPG) better than Jazz (125.2 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Bucks (26-35) in better form than Jazz (19-44)
Turnover Differential
Bucks turnover differential (+0) vs Jazz (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Jazz
Bucks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Bucks has a 59% win probability, while Jazz has a 41% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, WI.