Portland Trail Blazers at Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies 60% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Grizzlies:
- Home Field Advantage. Grizzlies are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency. Grizzlies defense (117.7 Opp PPG) better than Trail Blazers (118.3 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Grizzlies offense (115.7 PPG) outpaces Trail Blazers (115.2 PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MEM 55% (−5)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: MEM 57% (−3)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: MEM 57% (−3)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: MEM 59% (−1)
Win probability movement
MEM home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Trail Blazers defeated the Grizzlies 122-114.
Our model predicted the Grizzlies would win with 60% confidence, but the Trail Blazers won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Grizzlies and was a notable factor: Grizzlies are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Grizzlies and was a contributing factor: Grizzlies defense (117.7 Opp PPG) better than Trail Blazers (118.3 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Grizzlies and was a contributing factor: Grizzlies offense (115.7 PPG) outpaces Trail Blazers (115.2 PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Trail Blazers won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Memphis Grizzlies
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Memphis Grizzlies
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Memphis Grizzlies
- Recent FormNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Trail Blazers
Grizzlies
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Grizzlies has a 60% win probability, while Trail Blazers has a 40% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at FedExForum in Memphis, TN.