Charlotte Hornets at Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics vs Charlotte Hornets head-to-head
Boston Celtics 75% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Celtics:
- Defensive Efficiency. Celtics defense (107.0 Opp PPG) better than Hornets (112.7 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Celtics are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form. Celtics (41-20) in better form than Hornets (31-31)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: BOS 55% (−20)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: BOS 68% (−7)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: BOS 74% (−1)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: BOS 69% (−6)
Win probability movement
BOS home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Hornets defeated the Celtics 118-89.
Our model predicted the Celtics would win with 75% confidence, but the Hornets won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Celtics and was a major factor: Celtics defense (107.0 Opp PPG) better than Hornets (112.7 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Celtics and was a notable factor: Celtics are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Hornets and was a contributing factor: Hornets offense (116.0 PPG) outpaces Celtics (114.9 PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Hornets won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Boston Celtics
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Boston Celtics
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Charlotte Hornets
- Recent FormFavors Boston Celtics
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Celtics defense (107.0 Opp PPG) better than Hornets (112.7 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Hornets offense (116.0 PPG) outpaces Celtics (114.9 PPG)
Recent Form
Celtics (41-20) in better form than Hornets (31-31)
Turnover Differential
Celtics turnover differential (+0) vs Hornets (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Hornets
Celtics
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Boston Celtics
- Previous game77%BOS win probability
- Next game-No model yet
Charlotte Hornets
- Previous game75%CHA win probability
- Next game-No model yet
Other games on Mar 5, 2026
- 65%OKC win probability
- 60%MEM win probability
No other game on this slate
No other game on this slate
Frequently Asked Questions
Celtics has a 75% win probability, while Hornets has a 25% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at TD Garden in Boston, MA.