NBA weekly recap: week of 2026-04-27 (2025-26)
Hit rate this week: 68% across 19 games; season-to-date: 69%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 76% — final BOS 100–PHI 109
- Defensive Efficiency (favors BOS)
- Home Field Advantage (favors BOS)
- Offensive Efficiency (favors PHI)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lakers at Rockets Mon, Apr 27 | HOU 65% • LAL 35% | HOU 115–LAL 96 | Hit |
| Pistons at Magic Tue, Apr 28 | ORL 28% • DET 72% | ORL 94–DET 88 | Miss |
| Thunder at Suns Tue, Apr 28 | PHX 19% • OKC 81% | PHX 122–OKC 131 | Hit |
| Timberwolves at Nuggets Tue, Apr 28 | DEN 57% • MIN 43% | DEN 125–MIN 113 | Hit |
| 76ers at Celtics Tue, Apr 28 | BOS 76% • PHI 24% | BOS 97–PHI 113 | Miss |
| Hawks at Knicks Wed, Apr 29 | NYK 75% • ATL 25% | NYK 126–ATL 97 | Hit |
| Trail Blazers at Spurs Wed, Apr 29 | SAS 87% • POR 13% | SAS 114–POR 95 | Hit |
| Magic at Pistons Wed, Apr 29 | DET 81% • ORL 19% | DET 116–ORL 109 | Hit |
| Raptors at Cavaliers Wed, Apr 29 | CLE 66% • TOR 34% | CLE 125–TOR 120 | Hit |
| Rockets at Lakers Thu, Apr 30 | LAL 47% • HOU 53% | LAL 93–HOU 99 | Hit |
| Knicks at Hawks Thu, Apr 30 | ATL 34% • NYK 66% | ATL 89–NYK 140 | Hit |
| Celtics at 76ers Fri, May 1 | PHI 35% • BOS 65% | PHI 106–BOS 93 | Miss |
| Nuggets at Timberwolves Fri, May 1 | MIN 54% • DEN 47% | MIN 110–DEN 98 | Hit |
| Pistons at Magic Fri, May 1 | ORL 28% • DET 72% | ORL 79–DET 93 | Hit |
| Cavaliers at Raptors Fri, May 1 | TOR 46% • CLE 54% | TOR 112–CLE 110 | Miss |
| Lakers at Rockets Sat, May 2 | HOU 65% • LAL 35% | HOU 78–LAL 98 | Miss |
| 76ers at Celtics Sat, May 2 | BOS 76% • PHI 24% | BOS 100–PHI 109 | Miss |
| Magic at Pistons Sun, May 3 | DET 81% • ORL 19% | DET 116–ORL 94 | Hit |
| Raptors at Cavaliers Sun, May 3 | CLE 66% • TOR 34% | CLE 114–TOR 102 | Hit |