MLB report card: week of 2026-07-27 (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
50.5%
hit rate
0.251
Brier score
49 of 97 decided
Season to date
53.9%
hit rate
0.248
Brier score
1103 of 2046 decided · 10 ties
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Cardinals at Blue JaysTOR 56.8% pre-game — final TOR 1–STL 5
- Rangers at RaysTB 56.7% pre-game — final TB 1–TEX 4
- Mariners at DodgersLAD 56.6% pre-game — final LAD 6–SEA 7
- Diamondbacks at PiratesPIT 56.1% pre-game — final PIT 0–ARI 3
- Diamondbacks at PiratesPIT 56.1% pre-game — final PIT 7–ARI 8
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Phillies at MarlinsMIA 61.4% pre-game — final MIA 8–PHI 7
- Cardinals at Blue JaysTOR 58.5% pre-game — final TOR 3–STL 1
- Royals at RockiesCOL 57.2% pre-game — final COL 3–KC 1
- Cardinals at Blue JaysTOR 56.8% pre-game — final TOR 5–STL 1
- Rockies at PadresSD 56.3% pre-game — final SD 3–COL 1
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners at Rangers Mon, Jul 27 | TEX 55.7% · SEA 44.3% | TEX 7–SEA 3 | Hit |
| Phillies at Marlins Mon, Jul 27 | MIA 61.4% · PHI 38.6% | MIA 8–PHI 7 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Pirates Mon, Jul 27 | PIT 56.1% · ARI 43.9% | PIT 3–ARI 2 | Hit |
| Orioles at Tigers Mon, Jul 27 | DET 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | DET 5–BAL 8 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Nationals Mon, Jul 27 | WSH 56.1% · TOR 43.9% | WSH 2–TOR 3 | Miss |
| Braves at Mets Mon, Jul 27 | NYM 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | NYM 14–ATL 3 | Hit |
| Yankees at Chicago White Sox Mon, Jul 27 | CWS 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | CWS 5–NYY 9 | Miss |
| Cubs at Cardinals Mon, Jul 27 | STL 54.2% · CHC 45.8% | STL 3–CHC 7 | Miss |
| Astros at Angels Tue, Jul 28 | LAA 54.3% · HOU 45.7% | LAA 4–HOU 6 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Athletics Tue, Jul 28 | OAK 55.6% · BOS 44.4% | OAK 2–BOS 4 | Miss |
| Brewers at Giants Tue, Jul 28 | SF 54.0% · MIL 46.0% | SF 3–MIL 0 | Hit |
| Guardians at Reds Tue, Jul 28 | CIN 52.4% · CLE 47.6% | CIN 5–CLE 6 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Pirates Tue, Jul 28 | PIT 56.1% · ARI 43.9% | PIT 7–ARI 8 | Miss |
| Rangers at Rays Tue, Jul 28 | TB 56.7% · TEX 43.3% | TB 1–TEX 4 | Miss |
| Orioles at Tigers Tue, Jul 28 | DET 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | DET 14–BAL 0 | Hit |
| Phillies at Marlins Tue, Jul 28 | MIA 55.4% · PHI 44.6% | MIA 1–PHI 0 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Nationals Tue, Jul 28 | WSH 56.1% · TOR 43.9% | WSH 8–TOR 6 | Hit |
| Guardians at Reds Tue, Jul 28 | CIN 54.1% · CLE 45.9% | CIN 2–CLE 0 | Hit |
| Royals at Twins Tue, Jul 28 | MIN 55.4% · KC 44.6% | MIN 3–KC 2 | Hit |
| Yankees at Chicago White Sox Tue, Jul 28 | CWS 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | CWS 2–NYY 3 | Miss |
| Cubs at Cardinals Tue, Jul 28 | STL 54.2% · CHC 45.8% | STL 2–CHC 10 | Miss |
| Astros at Angels Wed, Jul 29 | LAA 54.3% · HOU 45.7% | LAA 2–HOU 3 | Miss |
| Rockies at Padres Wed, Jul 29 | SD 56.3% · COL 43.7% | SD 8–COL 7 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Athletics Wed, Jul 29 | OAK 55.6% · BOS 44.4% | OAK 4–BOS 3 | Hit |
| Brewers at Giants Wed, Jul 29 | SF 54.0% · MIL 46.0% | SF 2–MIL 8 | Miss |
| Mariners at Dodgers Wed, Jul 29 | LAD 56.6% · SEA 43.4% | LAD 6–SEA 7 | Miss |
| Phillies at Marlins Wed, Jul 29 | MIA 55.4% · PHI 44.6% | MIA 8–PHI 6 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Pirates Wed, Jul 29 | PIT 56.1% · ARI 43.9% | PIT 0–ARI 3 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Nationals Wed, Jul 29 | WSH 56.1% · TOR 43.9% | WSH 2–TOR 5 | Miss |
| Braves at Mets Wed, Jul 29 | NYM 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | NYM 3–ATL 2 | Hit |
| Orioles at Tigers Wed, Jul 29 | DET 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | DET 9–BAL 10 | Miss |
| Brewers at Giants Wed, Jul 29 | SF 54.0% · MIL 46.0% | SF 16–MIL 3 | Hit |
| Rockies at Padres Wed, Jul 29 | SD 56.3% · COL 43.7% | SD 3–COL 1 | Hit |
| Rangers at Rays Wed, Jul 29 | TB 55.0% · TEX 45.0% | TB 3–TEX 0 | Hit |
| Braves at Mets Wed, Jul 29 | NYM 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | NYM 0–ATL 1 | Miss |
| Guardians at Reds Wed, Jul 29 | CIN 54.1% · CLE 45.9% | CIN 1–CLE 6 | Miss |
| Royals at Twins Wed, Jul 29 | MIN 55.4% · KC 44.6% | MIN 0–KC 4 | Miss |
| Yankees at Chicago White Sox Wed, Jul 29 | CWS 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | CWS 6–NYY 5 | Hit |
| Cubs at Cardinals Wed, Jul 29 | STL 54.2% · CHC 45.8% | STL 3–CHC 2 | Hit |
| Astros at Angels Thu, Jul 30 | LAA 54.3% · HOU 45.7% | LAA 4–HOU 7 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Athletics Thu, Jul 30 | OAK 55.6% · BOS 44.4% | OAK 2–BOS 4 | Miss |
| Mariners at Dodgers Thu, Jul 30 | LAD 54.9% · SEA 45.1% | LAD 4–SEA 2 | Hit |
| Rangers at Rays Thu, Jul 30 | TB 55.0% · TEX 45.0% | TB 3–TEX 2 | Hit |
| Royals at Twins Thu, Jul 30 | MIN 55.4% · KC 44.6% | MIN 4–KC 3 | Hit |
| Yankees at Chicago White Sox Thu, Jul 30 | CWS 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | CWS 2–NYY 1 | Hit |
| Cubs at Cardinals Thu, Jul 30 | STL 54.2% · CHC 45.8% | STL 2–CHC 4 | Miss |
| Nationals at Braves Thu, Jul 30 | ATL 46.2% · WSH 53.8% | ATL 5–WSH 4 | Miss |
| Marlins at Mets Thu, Jul 30 | NYM 54.9% · MIA 45.1% | NYM 4–MIA 2 | Hit |
| Pirates at Reds Thu, Jul 30 | CIN 54.1% · PIT 45.9% | CIN 3–PIT 2 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Athletics Fri, Jul 31 | OAK 55.6% · BOS 44.4% | OAK 4–BOS 5 | Miss |
| Giants at Padres Fri, Jul 31 | SD 55.8% · SF 44.2% | SD 1–SF 4 | Miss |
| Mariners at Dodgers Fri, Jul 31 | LAD 54.9% · SEA 45.1% | LAD 6–SEA 2 | Hit |
| Yankees at Cubs Fri, Jul 31 | CHC 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | CHC 0–NYY 2 | Miss |
| Pirates at Reds Fri, Jul 31 | CIN 54.1% · PIT 45.9% | CIN 8–PIT 7 | Hit |
| Phillies at Orioles Fri, Jul 31 | BAL 54.7% · PHI 45.3% | BAL 6–PHI 4 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Blue Jays Fri, Jul 31 | TOR 58.5% · STL 41.5% | TOR 3–STL 1 | Hit |
| Marlins at Mets Fri, Jul 31 | NYM 54.9% · MIA 45.1% | NYM 2–MIA 5 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Guardians Fri, Jul 31 | CLE 56.1% · ARI 43.9% | CLE 1–ARI 4 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Rays Fri, Jul 31 | TB 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | TB 1–CWS 6 | Miss |
| Nationals at Braves Fri, Jul 31 | ATL 52.4% · WSH 47.6% | ATL 6–WSH 2 | Hit |
| Rangers at Astros Sat, Aug 1 | HOU 54.5% · TEX 45.5% | HOU 11–TEX 2 | Hit |
| Royals at Rockies Sat, Aug 1 | COL 57.2% · KC 42.8% | COL 3–KC 1 | Hit |
| Brewers at Angels Sat, Aug 1 | LAA 52.6% · MIL 47.4% | LAA 2–MIL 6 | Miss |
| Tigers at Athletics Sat, Aug 1 | OAK 53.6% · DET 46.4% | OAK 1–DET 13 | Miss |
| Giants at Padres Sat, Aug 1 | SD 55.8% · SF 44.2% | SD 7–SF 0 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Dodgers Sat, Aug 1 | LAD 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | LAD 4–BOS 9 | Miss |
| Twins at Mariners Sat, Aug 1 | SEA 54.1% · MIN 45.9% | SEA 3–MIN 5 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Blue Jays Sat, Aug 1 | TOR 56.8% · STL 43.2% | TOR 5–STL 1 | Hit |
| Twins at Mariners Sat, Aug 1 | SEA 54.1% · MIN 45.9% | SEA 4–MIN 3 | Hit |
| Marlins at Mets Sat, Aug 1 | NYM 54.9% · MIA 45.1% | NYM 2–MIA 6 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Rays Sat, Aug 1 | TB 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | TB 1–CWS 0 | Hit |
| Pirates at Reds Sat, Aug 1 | CIN 54.1% · PIT 45.9% | CIN 1–PIT 4 | Miss |
| Phillies at Orioles Sat, Aug 1 | BAL 54.7% · PHI 45.3% | BAL 0–PHI 5 | Miss |
| Rangers at Astros Sat, Aug 1 | HOU 54.5% · TEX 45.5% | HOU 5–TEX 4 | Hit |
| Yankees at Cubs Sat, Aug 1 | CHC 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | CHC 5–NYY 2 | Hit |
| Nationals at Braves Sat, Aug 1 | ATL 52.4% · WSH 47.6% | ATL 8–WSH 3 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Guardians Sat, Aug 1 | CLE 56.1% · ARI 43.9% | CLE 8–ARI 12 | Miss |
| Royals at Rockies Sun, Aug 2 | COL 55.5% · KC 44.5% | COL 12–KC 6 | Hit |
| Giants at Padres Sun, Aug 2 | SD 55.8% · SF 44.2% | SD 6–SF 5 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Dodgers Sun, Aug 2 | LAD 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | LAD 2–BOS 3 | Miss |
| Brewers at Angels Sun, Aug 2 | LAA 52.6% · MIL 47.4% | LAA 1–MIL 3 | Miss |
| Tigers at Athletics Sun, Aug 2 | OAK 55.4% · DET 44.6% | OAK 6–DET 8 | Miss |
| Nationals at Braves Sun, Aug 2 | ATL 52.4% · WSH 47.6% | ATL 4–WSH 2 | Hit |
| Phillies at Orioles Sun, Aug 2 | BAL 54.7% · PHI 45.3% | BAL 0–PHI 8 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Blue Jays Sun, Aug 2 | TOR 56.8% · STL 43.2% | TOR 1–STL 5 | Miss |
| Marlins at Mets Sun, Aug 2 | NYM 54.9% · MIA 45.1% | NYM 0–MIA 2 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Guardians Sun, Aug 2 | CLE 56.1% · ARI 43.9% | CLE 5–ARI 0 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Rays Sun, Aug 2 | TB 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | TB 1–CWS 9 | Miss |
| Pirates at Reds Sun, Aug 2 | CIN 54.1% · PIT 45.9% | CIN 10–PIT 2 | Hit |
| Rangers at Astros Sun, Aug 2 | HOU 54.5% · TEX 45.5% | HOU 7–TEX 3 | Hit |
| Yankees at Cubs Sun, Aug 2 | CHC 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | CHC 1–NYY 2 | Miss |
| Royals at Rockies Sun, Aug 2 | COL 55.5% · KC 44.5% | COL 8–KC 1 | Hit |
| Brewers at Angels Sun, Aug 2 | LAA 52.6% · MIL 47.4% | LAA 3–MIL 0 | Hit |
| Tigers at Athletics Sun, Aug 2 | OAK 55.4% · DET 44.6% | OAK 0–DET 11 | Miss |
| Twins at Mariners Sun, Aug 2 | SEA 54.1% · MIN 45.9% | SEA 7–MIN 6 | Hit |
| Giants at Padres Sun, Aug 2 | SD 55.8% · SF 44.2% | SD 5–SF 4 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Dodgers Sun, Aug 2 | LAD 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | LAD 4–BOS 8 | Miss |
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