Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners 54% to win. The biggest signal favoring Mariners:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: SEA 52% (−2)
Win probability movement
SEA home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Mariners defeated the Twins 7-6.
Our model predicted the Mariners would win with 54% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Mariners and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Injuries was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar injury situations: Mariners (0 out) vs Twins (0 out)
- Rest Days was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar rest: Mariners (1 day rest) vs Twins (1 day rest)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Mariners won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Seattle Mariners
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Mariners
Twins
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Twins
Mariners
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Mariners has a 54% win probability, while Twins has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington.