Boston Red Sox at Athletics Athletics
Athletics Athletics 56% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Athletics:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- ELO Rating. Oakland Athletics ELO 1492 vs Red Sox ELO 1468 (diff: +24)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: OAK 52% (−4)
Win probability movement
OAK home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Oakland Athletics defeated the Red Sox 4-3.
Our model predicted the Oakland Athletics would win with 56% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Oakland Athletics and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar rest: Oakland Athletics (1 day rest) vs Red Sox (1 day rest)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No offensive stats available for comparison
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Athletics won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Athletics Athletics
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- ELO RatingFavors Athletics Athletics
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Red Sox
Athletics
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Athletics has a 56% win probability, while Red Sox has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, California.