San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 56% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Padres:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- ELO Rating. Padres ELO 1553 vs Giants ELO 1522 (diff: +31)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: SD 52% (−4)
Win probability movement
SD home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Padres defeated the Giants 5-4.
Our model predicted the Padres would win with 56% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Padres and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No defensive stats available for comparison
- Head to Head was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent head-to-head history available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Padres won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors San Diego Padres
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Padres
Giants
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Padres has a 56% win probability, while Giants has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Petco Park in San Diego, California.