MLB weekly recap: week of 2026-03-09 (2026)
Hit rate this week: 63% across 57 games; season-to-date: 54%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 56% — final COL 1–CIN 8
- Home Field Advantage (favors COL)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orioles at Cardinals Mon, Mar 9 | STL 56% • BAL 44% | STL 7–BAL 2 | Hit |
| Twins at Braves Mon, Mar 9 | ATL 56% • MIN 44% | ATL 9–MIN 8 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Astros Mon, Mar 9 | HOU 56% • STL 44% | HOU 10–STL 3 | Hit |
| Phillies at Red Sox Mon, Mar 9 | BOS 56% • PHI 44% | BOS 5–PHI 3 | Hit |
| Rockies at Chicago White Sox Mon, Mar 9 | CWS 56% • COL 44% | CWS 12–COL 3 | Hit |
| Angels at Giants Mon, Mar 9 | SF 56% • LAA 44% | SF 0–LAA 2 | Miss |
| Guardians at Royals Mon, Mar 9 | KC 56% • CLE 44% | KC 2–CLE 6 | Miss |
| Athletics at Reds Mon, Mar 9 | CIN 56% • OAK 44% | CIN 7–OAK 9 | Miss |
| Angels at Brewers Mon, Mar 9 | MIL 56% • LAA 44% | MIL 3–LAA 4 | Miss |
| Mariners at Diamondbacks Mon, Mar 9 | ARI 56% • SEA 44% | ARI 2–SEA 1 | Hit |
| Rangers at Padres Mon, Mar 9 | SD 56% • TEX 44% | SD 1–TEX 4 | Miss |
| Marlins at Yankees Mon, Mar 9 | NYY 56% • MIA 44% | NYY 9–MIA 0 | Hit |
| Pirates at Mets Mon, Mar 9 | NYM 56% • PIT 44% | NYM 3–PIT 5 | Miss |
| Orioles at Astros Tue, Mar 10 | HOU 56% • BAL 44% | HOU 7–BAL 6 | Hit |
| Twins at Rays Tue, Mar 10 | TB 56% • MIN 44% | TB 5–MIN 6 | Miss |
| Tigers at Red Sox Tue, Mar 10 | BOS 56% • DET 44% | BOS 2–DET 7 | Miss |
| Mets at Phillies Tue, Mar 10 | PHI 56% • NYM 44% | PHI 2–NYM 4 | Miss |
| Braves at Blue Jays Tue, Mar 10 | TOR 56% • ATL 44% | TOR 7–ATL 0 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Yankees Tue, Mar 10 | NYY 56% • STL 44% | NYY 6–STL 1 | Hit |
| Nationals at Marlins Tue, Mar 10 | MIA 56% • WSH 44% | MIA 5–WSH 7 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Athletics Tue, Mar 10 | OAK 56% • CWS 44% | OAK 11–CWS 7 | Hit |
| Cubs at Rangers Tue, Mar 10 | TEX 56% • CHC 44% | TEX 8–CHC 3 | Hit |
| Giants at Guardians Tue, Mar 10 | CLE 56% • SF 44% | CLE 4–SF 5 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Angels Tue, Mar 10 | LAA 56% • ARI 44% | LAA 4–ARI 1 | Hit |
| Padres at Angels Tue, Mar 10 | LAA 56% • SD 44% | LAA 2–SD 10 | Miss |
| Royals at Mariners Tue, Mar 10 | SEA 56% • KC 44% | SEA 4–KC 3 | Hit |
| Reds at Rockies Tue, Mar 10 | COL 56% • CIN 44% | COL 1–CIN 8 | Miss |
| Marlins at Nationals Sat, Mar 14 | WSH 55% • MIA 45% | WSH 1–MIA 4 | Miss |
| Rays at Twins Sat, Mar 14 | MIN 55% • TB 45% | MIN 6–TB 9 | Miss |
| Phillies at Yankees Sat, Mar 14 | NYY 55% • PHI 45% | NYY 4–PHI 6 | Miss |
| Orioles at Pirates Sat, Mar 14 | PIT 55% • BAL 45% | PIT 8–BAL 6 | Hit |
| Tigers at Blue Jays Sat, Mar 14 | TOR 55% • DET 45% | TOR 1–DET 6 | Miss |
| Padres at Rangers Sat, Mar 14 | TEX 55% • SD 45% | TEX 22–SD 2 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Chicago White Sox Sat, Mar 14 | CWS 55% • LAD 45% | CWS 7–LAD 2 | Hit |
| Royals at Athletics Sat, Mar 14 | OAK 55% • KC 45% | OAK 12–KC 1 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Giants Sat, Mar 14 | SF 55% • ARI 45% | SF 7–ARI 8 | Miss |
| Rangers at Reds Sat, Mar 14 | CIN 55% • TEX 45% | CIN 4–TEX 3 | Hit |
| Rockies at Brewers Sat, Mar 14 | MIL 55% • COL 45% | MIL 8–COL 4 | Hit |
| Mariners at Angels Sat, Mar 14 | LAA 55% • SEA 45% | LAA 6–SEA 2 | Hit |
| Guardians at Padres Sat, Mar 14 | SD 55% • CLE 45% | SD 8–CLE 5 | Hit |
| Cubs at Rockies Sat, Mar 14 | COL 55% • CHC 45% | COL 4–CHC 3 | Hit |
| Mets at Astros Sat, Mar 14 | HOU 55% • NYM 45% | HOU 8–NYM 2 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Braves Sat, Mar 14 | ATL 55% • BOS 45% | ATL 10–BOS 1 | Hit |
| Nationals at Cardinals Sun, Mar 15 | STL 55% • WSH 45% | STL 6–WSH 3 | Hit |
| Marlins at Astros Sun, Mar 15 | HOU 55% • MIA 45% | HOU 1–MIA 0 | Hit |
| Tigers at Yankees Sun, Mar 15 | NYY 55% • DET 45% | NYY 1–DET 12 | Miss |
| Braves at Phillies Sun, Mar 15 | PHI 55% • ATL 45% | PHI 0–ATL 1 | Miss |
| Pirates at Rays Sun, Mar 15 | TB 55% • PIT 45% | TB 6–PIT 1 | Hit |
| Twins at Red Sox Sun, Mar 15 | BOS 55% • MIN 45% | BOS 7–MIN 2 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Mets Sun, Mar 15 | NYM 55% • TOR 45% | NYM 8–TOR 1 | Hit |
| Athletics at Guardians Sun, Mar 15 | CLE 55% • OAK 45% | CLE 12–OAK 6 | Hit |
| Rangers at Dodgers Sun, Mar 15 | LAD 55% • TEX 45% | LAD 5–TEX 3 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Cubs Sun, Mar 15 | CHC 55% • LAD 45% | CHC 8–LAD 14 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Royals Sun, Mar 15 | KC 55% • CWS 45% | KC 10–CWS 4 | Hit |
| Brewers at Giants Sun, Mar 15 | SF 55% • MIL 45% | SF 7–MIL 1 | Hit |
| Reds at Mariners Sun, Mar 15 | SEA 55% • CIN 45% | SEA 6–CIN 3 | Hit |
| Rockies at Angels Sun, Mar 15 | LAA 55% • COL 45% | LAA 6–COL 5 | Hit |