St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals head-to-head
Miami Marlins 56% to win. The biggest signal favoring Marlins:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MIA 52% (−4)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Marlins and the Cardinals played to a 2-2 draw.
Our model had predicted the Marlins to win with 56% confidence. The game ended in a tie, a relatively rare outcome.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Marlins and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Injuries was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar injury situations: Marlins (0 out) vs Cardinals (0 out)
- Rest Days was neutral and a contributing factor: Rest days data not available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Cardinals won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Miami Marlins
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Cardinals
Marlins
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Miami Marlins
- Previous game-No model yet
- Next game56%NYY win probability
St. Louis Cardinals
- Previous game56%STL win probability
- Next game56%STL win probability
Other games on Mar 8, 2026
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- 56%BAL win probability
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- 56%PIT win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Marlins has a 56% win probability, while Cardinals has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium in Jupiter, Florida.