New York Yankees at St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 56% to win. The biggest signal favoring Cardinals:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: STL 52% (−4)
Win probability movement
STL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Yankees defeated the Cardinals 3-2.
Our model predicted the Cardinals would win with 56% confidence, but the Yankees won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Cardinals and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Turnover Differential was neutral and a contributing factor: No turnover stats available for comparison
- Head to Head was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent head-to-head history available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Yankees won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors St. Louis Cardinals
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Yankees
Cardinals
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Cardinals has a 56% win probability, while Yankees has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium in Jupiter, Florida.