MLB report card: week of 2026-03-02 (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
59.3%
hit rate
0.246
Brier score
16 of 27 decided · 2 ties
Season to date
53.9%
hit rate
0.248
Brier score
1103 of 2046 decided · 10 ties
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Angels at RangersTEX 60.7% pre-game — final TEX 7–LAA 10
- Giants at CubsCHC 55.6% pre-game — final CHC 5–SF 9
- Blue Jays at OriolesBAL 55.6% pre-game — final BAL 0–TOR 1
- Rockies at AngelsLAA 55.6% pre-game — final LAA 4–COL 6
- Angels at AthleticsOAK 55.6% pre-game — final OAK 0–LAA 3
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Mariners at BrewersMIL 55.6% pre-game — final MIL 6–SEA 3
- Reds at PadresSD 55.6% pre-game — final SD 14–CIN 3
- Royals at Chicago White SoxCWS 55.6% pre-game — final CWS 5–KC 4
- Diamondbacks at RedsCIN 55.6% pre-game — final CIN 13–ARI 4
- Angels at AthleticsOAK 55.6% pre-game — final OAK 7–LAA 4
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs at Brewers Wed, Mar 4 | MIL 55.6% · CHC 44.4% | MIL 1–CHC 4 | Miss |
| Yankees at Nationals Thu, Mar 5 | WSH 55.6% · NYY 44.4% | WSH 7–NYY 4 | Hit |
| Brewers at Rockies Thu, Mar 5 | COL 55.6% · MIL 44.4% | COL 8–MIL 10 | Miss |
| Athletics at Angels Thu, Mar 5 | LAA 55.6% · OAK 44.4% | LAA 11–OAK 16 | Miss |
| Rockies at Athletics Fri, Mar 6 | OAK 55.6% · COL 44.4% | OAK 6–COL 11 | Miss |
| Cubs at Padres Sat, Mar 7 | SD 55.6% · CHC 44.4% | SD 3–CHC 0 | Hit |
| Yankees at Cardinals Sat, Mar 7 | STL 55.6% · NYY 44.4% | STL 2–NYY 3 | Miss |
| Athletics at Cubs Sat, Mar 7 | CHC 55.6% · OAK 44.4% | CHC 4–OAK 3 | Hit |
| Brewers at Angels Sat, Mar 7 | LAA 55.6% · MIL 44.4% | LAA 1–MIL 7 | Miss |
| Angels at Athletics Sat, Mar 7 | OAK 55.6% · LAA 44.4% | OAK 0–LAA 3 | Miss |
| Mets at Nationals Sat, Mar 7 | WSH 55.6% · NYM 44.4% | WSH 3–NYM 0 | Hit |
| Rockies at Angels Sun, Mar 8 | LAA 55.6% · COL 44.4% | LAA 4–COL 6 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Orioles Sun, Mar 8 | BAL 55.6% · TOR 44.4% | BAL 0–TOR 1 | Miss |
| Braves at Rays Sun, Mar 8 | TB 55.6% · ATL 44.4% | TB 9–ATL 8 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Pirates Sun, Mar 8 | PIT 55.6% · BOS 44.4% | PIT 9–BOS 7 | Hit |
| Phillies at Twins Sun, Mar 8 | MIN 55.6% · PHI 44.4% | MIN 7–PHI 6 | Hit |
| Astros at Nationals Sun, Mar 8 | WSH 55.6% · HOU 44.4% | WSH 3–HOU 1 | Hit |
| Tigers at Blue Jays Sun, Mar 8 | TOR 55.6% · DET 44.4% | TOR 5–DET 0 | Hit |
| Mets at Yankees Sun, Mar 8 | NYY 55.6% · NYM 44.4% | NYY 10–NYM 4 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Marlins Sun, Mar 8 | MIA 55.6% · STL 44.4% | MIA 2–STL 2 | Tie |
| Giants at Cubs Sun, Mar 8 | CHC 55.6% · SF 44.4% | CHC 5–SF 9 | Miss |
| Angels at Rangers Sun, Mar 8 | TEX 60.7% · LAA 39.3% | TEX 7–LAA 10 | Miss |
| Royals at Chicago White Sox Sun, Mar 8 | CWS 55.6% · KC 44.4% | CWS 5–KC 4 | Hit |
| Angels at Athletics Sun, Mar 8 | OAK 51.2% · LAA 48.8% | OAK 11–LAA 7 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Reds Sun, Mar 8 | CIN 55.6% · ARI 44.4% | CIN 13–ARI 4 | Hit |
| Angels at Athletics Sun, Mar 8 | OAK 55.6% · LAA 44.4% | OAK 7–LAA 4 | Hit |
| Mariners at Brewers Sun, Mar 8 | MIL 55.6% · SEA 44.4% | MIL 6–SEA 3 | Hit |
| Guardians at Rockies Sun, Mar 8 | COL 55.6% · CLE 44.4% | COL 4–CLE 4 | Tie |
| Reds at Padres Sun, Mar 8 | SD 55.6% · CIN 44.4% | SD 14–CIN 3 | Hit |
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