Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers 56% to win. The biggest signal favoring Brewers:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MIL 52% (−4)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Cubs defeated the Brewers 4-1.
Our model predicted the Brewers would win with 56% confidence, but the Cubs won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Brewers and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Turnover Differential was neutral and a contributing factor: No turnover stats available for comparison
- Injuries was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar injury situations: Milwaukee Brewers (0 out) vs Chicago Cubs (0 out)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Cubs won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Milwaukee Brewers
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Cubs
Brewers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Brewers has a 56% win probability, while Cubs has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at American Family Fields of Phoenix in Phoenix, Arizona.