NBA report card: week of 2026-04-20 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
54.5%
hit rate
0.252
Brier score
12 of 22 decided
Season to date
69.1%
hit rate
0.195
Brier score
273 of 395 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Trail Blazers at SpursSAS 86.6% pre-game — final SAS 103–POR 106
- 76ers at CelticsBOS 75.9% pre-game — final BOS 97–PHI 111
- Hawks at KnicksNYK 74.9% pre-game — final NYK 106–ATL 107
- Pistons at MagicDET 71.7% pre-game — final ORL 113–DET 105
- Knicks at HawksNYK 65.9% pre-game — final ATL 109–NYK 108
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Suns at ThunderOKC 87.6% pre-game — final OKC 120–PHX 107
- Trail Blazers at SpursSAS 86.2% pre-game — final SAS 111–POR 98
- Thunder at SunsOKC 81.0% pre-game — final PHX 109–OKC 121
- Magic at PistonsDET 80.8% pre-game — final DET 98–ORL 83
- Spurs at Trail BlazersSAS 79.6% pre-game — final POR 93–SAS 114
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trail Blazers at Spurs Mon, Apr 20 | SAS 86.2% · POR 13.8% | SAS 111–POR 98 | Hit |
| Raptors at Cavaliers Mon, Apr 20 | CLE 66.2% · TOR 33.8% | CLE 115–TOR 105 | Hit |
| Hawks at Knicks Tue, Apr 21 | NYK 74.9% · ATL 25.1% | NYK 106–ATL 107 | Miss |
| Timberwolves at Nuggets Tue, Apr 21 | DEN 57.4% · MIN 42.6% | DEN 114–MIN 119 | Miss |
| 76ers at Celtics Tue, Apr 21 | BOS 75.9% · PHI 24.1% | BOS 97–PHI 111 | Miss |
| Trail Blazers at Spurs Wed, Apr 22 | SAS 86.6% · POR 13.4% | SAS 103–POR 106 | Miss |
| Rockets at Lakers Wed, Apr 22 | LAL 47.4% · HOU 52.6% | LAL 101–HOU 94 | Miss |
| Magic at Pistons Wed, Apr 22 | DET 80.8% · ORL 19.2% | DET 98–ORL 83 | Hit |
| Suns at Thunder Thu, Apr 23 | OKC 87.6% · PHX 12.4% | OKC 120–PHX 107 | Hit |
| Knicks at Hawks Thu, Apr 23 | ATL 34.1% · NYK 65.9% | ATL 109–NYK 108 | Miss |
| Cavaliers at Raptors Fri, Apr 24 | TOR 45.9% · CLE 54.1% | TOR 126–CLE 104 | Miss |
| Nuggets at Timberwolves Fri, Apr 24 | MIN 53.5% · DEN 46.5% | MIN 113–DEN 96 | Hit |
| Celtics at 76ers Fri, Apr 24 | PHI 34.5% · BOS 65.5% | PHI 100–BOS 108 | Hit |
| Lakers at Rockets Sat, Apr 25 | HOU 64.9% · LAL 35.1% | HOU 108–LAL 112 | Miss |
| Spurs at Trail Blazers Sat, Apr 25 | POR 20.4% · SAS 79.6% | POR 108–SAS 120 | Hit |
| Pistons at Magic Sat, Apr 25 | ORL 28.3% · DET 71.7% | ORL 113–DET 105 | Miss |
| Thunder at Suns Sat, Apr 25 | PHX 19.0% · OKC 81.0% | PHX 109–OKC 121 | Hit |
| Knicks at Hawks Sat, Apr 25 | ATL 34.1% · NYK 65.9% | ATL 98–NYK 114 | Hit |
| Nuggets at Timberwolves Sun, Apr 26 | MIN 53.5% · DEN 46.5% | MIN 112–DEN 96 | Hit |
| Cavaliers at Raptors Sun, Apr 26 | TOR 45.9% · CLE 54.1% | TOR 93–CLE 89 | Miss |
| Spurs at Trail Blazers Sun, Apr 26 | POR 20.4% · SAS 79.6% | POR 93–SAS 114 | Hit |
| Celtics at 76ers Sun, Apr 26 | PHI 34.5% · BOS 65.5% | PHI 96–BOS 128 | Hit |
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