Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers
Boston Celtics 65% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Celtics:
- Defensive Efficiency. Celtics defense (107.0 Opp PPG) better than 76ers (116.1 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Celtics (47-23) in better form than 76ers (39-32)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: BOS 44% (−21)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: BOS 66% (+1)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: BOS 66% (+1)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: BOS 59% (−6)
Win probability movement
PHI home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Celtics defeated the 76ers 128-96.
Our model predicted the Celtics would win with 65% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Celtics and was a major factor: Celtics defense (107.0 Opp PPG) better than 76ers (116.1 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the 76ers and was a notable factor: 76ers are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency favored the 76ers and was a contributing factor: 76ers offense (115.6 PPG) outpaces Celtics (114.4 PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Celtics won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Boston Celtics
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Philadelphia 76ers
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Philadelphia 76ers
- Recent FormFavors Boston Celtics
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Celtics defense (107.0 Opp PPG) better than 76ers (116.1 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
76ers offense (115.6 PPG) outpaces Celtics (114.4 PPG)
Recent Form
Celtics (47-23) in better form than 76ers (39-32)
Turnover Differential
76ers turnover differential (+0) vs Celtics (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
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Key Players
Celtics
76ers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
76ers has a 35% win probability, while Celtics has a 65% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, PA.