Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks
New York Knicks 75% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Knicks:
- Defensive Efficiency. Knicks defense (110.3 Opp PPG) better than Hawks (116.5 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Knicks are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Recent Form. Knicks (46-25) in better form than Hawks (39-32)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: NYK 54% (−21)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: NYK 69% (−6)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: NYK 74% (−1)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: NYK 70% (−5)
Win probability movement
NYK home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Hawks defeated the Knicks 107-106.
Our model predicted the Knicks would win with 75% confidence, but the Hawks won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Knicks and was a major factor: Knicks defense (110.3 Opp PPG) better than Hawks (116.5 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Knicks and was a contributing factor: Knicks are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Hawks and was a contributing factor: Hawks offense (117.7 PPG) outpaces Knicks (116.8 PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Hawks won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors New York Knicks
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New York Knicks
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Atlanta Hawks
- Recent FormFavors New York Knicks
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Knicks defense (110.3 Opp PPG) better than Hawks (116.5 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Hawks offense (117.7 PPG) outpaces Knicks (116.8 PPG)
Recent Form
Knicks (46-25) in better form than Hawks (39-32)
Turnover Differential
Knicks turnover differential (+0) vs Hawks (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Hawks
Knicks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Knicks has a 75% win probability, while Hawks has a 25% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY.