Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors
Cleveland Cavaliers 54% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Cavaliers:
- Offensive Efficiency. Cavaliers offense (119.1 PPG) outpaces Raptors (114.0 PPG)
- Recent Form. Cavaliers (44-27) in better form than Raptors (39-30)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: CLE 37% (−17)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: CLE 61% (+7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CLE 57% (+3)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: CLE 52% (−2)
Win probability movement
TOR home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Raptors defeated the Cavaliers 126-104.
Our model predicted the Cavaliers would win with 54% confidence, but the Raptors won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Cavaliers and was a major factor: Cavaliers offense (119.1 PPG) outpaces Raptors (114.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Raptors and was a notable factor: Raptors defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Cavaliers (114.7 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Raptors and was a notable factor: Raptors are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Raptors won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Cleveland Cavaliers
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Toronto Raptors
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Toronto Raptors
- Recent FormFavors Cleveland Cavaliers
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Cavaliers offense (119.1 PPG) outpaces Raptors (114.0 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Raptors defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Cavaliers (114.7 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Cavaliers (44-27) in better form than Raptors (39-30)
Turnover Differential
Raptors turnover differential (+0) vs Cavaliers (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Cavaliers
Raptors
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Raptors has a 46% win probability, while Cavaliers has a 54% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.