Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets 57% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Nuggets:
- Offensive Efficiency. Nuggets offense (120.7 PPG) outpaces Timberwolves (118.6 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Nuggets are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: DEN 50% (−7)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: DEN 61% (+4)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DEN 54% (−3)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: DEN 56% (−1)
Win probability movement
DEN home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Timberwolves defeated the Nuggets 119-114.
Our model predicted the Nuggets would win with 57% confidence, but the Timberwolves won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Nuggets and was a notable factor: Nuggets offense (120.7 PPG) outpaces Timberwolves (118.6 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Timberwolves and was a contributing factor: Timberwolves defense (114.8 Opp PPG) better than Nuggets (116.5 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Nuggets and was a contributing factor: Nuggets are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Timberwolves won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Denver Nuggets
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Minnesota Timberwolves
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Denver Nuggets
- Recent FormNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Timberwolves
Nuggets
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Nuggets has a 57% win probability, while Timberwolves has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Ball Arena in Denver, CO.