Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Portland Trail Blazers head-to-head
Portland Trail Blazers 55% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Trail Blazers:
- Offensive Efficiency. Trail Blazers offense (126.0 PPG) outpaces Thunder (106.0 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Trail Blazers are 2-0 at home this season; Thunder are 1-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: POR 35% (−20)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: POR 73% (+18)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: POR 49% (−6)
- If the rating edge were neutral: POR 58% (+3)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Thunder at Trail Blazers
The Thunder visit the Trail Blazers at Moda Center in Portland, OR in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Trail Blazers a 55% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. For the Thunder to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Trail Blazers (high): Trail Blazers offense (126.0 PPG) outpaces Thunder (106.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Thunder (high): Thunder defense (94.0 Opp PPG) better than Trail Blazers (101.5 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Trail Blazers (medium): Trail Blazers are 2-0 at home this season; Thunder are 1-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Portland Trail Blazers
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Portland Trail Blazers
- ELO RatingFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Trail Blazers offense (126.0 PPG) outpaces Thunder (106.0 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Thunder defense (94.0 Opp PPG) better than Trail Blazers (101.5 Opp PPG)
Turnover Differential
Trail Blazers turnover differential (+0) vs Thunder (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Thunder
Trail Blazers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Portland Trail Blazers
- Previous game86%POR win probability
- Next game87%POR win probability
Oklahoma City Thunder
- Previous game52%DEN win probability
- Next game55%LAC win probability
Other games on Nov 11, 2026
- 60%NYK win probability
- 84%TOR win probability
- 72%WSH win probability
- 57%NOP win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Trail Blazers has a 55% win probability, while Thunder has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Moda Center in Portland, OR.