Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors
Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors head-to-head
Toronto Raptors 84% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Raptors:
- Offensive Efficiency. Raptors offense (123.5 PPG) outpaces Celtics (110.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency. Raptors defense (97.0 Opp PPG) better than Celtics (112.0 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Raptors are 3-1 at home this season; Celtics are 2-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: TOR 71% (−13)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: TOR 71% (−13)
- If the rating edge were neutral: TOR 86% (+2)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TOR 82% (−2)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Celtics at Raptors
The Celtics visit the Raptors at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Raptors a 84% chance of winning, signaling a strong lean in this matchup. For the Celtics to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Raptors (high): Raptors offense (123.5 PPG) outpaces Celtics (110.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Raptors (high): Raptors defense (97.0 Opp PPG) better than Celtics (112.0 Opp PPG)
- ELO Rating favors the Celtics (low): Raptors ELO 1543 vs Celtics ELO 1636 (diff: -93)
is strongly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Toronto Raptors
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Toronto Raptors
- ELO RatingFavors Boston Celtics
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Toronto Raptors
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Raptors offense (123.5 PPG) outpaces Celtics (110.0 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Raptors defense (97.0 Opp PPG) better than Celtics (112.0 Opp PPG)
Turnover Differential
Raptors turnover differential (+0) vs Celtics (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Celtics
Raptors
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Toronto Raptors
- Previous game86%TOR win probability
- Next game79%TOR win probability
Boston Celtics
- Previous game54%BOS win probability
- Next game76%BOS win probability
Other games on Nov 11, 2026
- 60%NYK win probability
- 72%WSH win probability
- 57%NOP win probability
- 81%MEM win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Raptors has a 84% win probability, while Celtics has a 16% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.