Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies
Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies head-to-head
Memphis Grizzlies 81% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Grizzlies:
- Defensive Efficiency. Grizzlies defense (105.5 Opp PPG) better than Nuggets (115.5 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Grizzlies offense (117.0 PPG) outpaces Nuggets (112.5 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Grizzlies are 2-1 at home this season; Nuggets are 2-2 on the road
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: MEM 66% (−15)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: MEM 70% (−11)
- If the rating edge were neutral: MEM 84% (+3)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MEM 78% (−3)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Nuggets at Grizzlies
The Nuggets visit the Grizzlies at FedExForum in Memphis, TN in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Grizzlies a 81% chance of winning, signaling a strong lean in this matchup. For the Nuggets to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Grizzlies (high): Grizzlies defense (105.5 Opp PPG) better than Nuggets (115.5 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Grizzlies (high): Grizzlies offense (117.0 PPG) outpaces Nuggets (112.5 PPG)
- ELO Rating favors the Nuggets (medium): Grizzlies ELO 1402 vs Nuggets ELO 1549 (diff: -147)
is strongly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Memphis Grizzlies
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Memphis Grizzlies
- ELO RatingFavors Denver Nuggets
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Memphis Grizzlies
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Grizzlies defense (105.5 Opp PPG) better than Nuggets (115.5 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Grizzlies offense (117.0 PPG) outpaces Nuggets (112.5 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Grizzlies turnover differential (+0) vs Nuggets (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Nuggets
Grizzlies
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Memphis Grizzlies
- Previous game86%MEM win probability
- Next game53%NOP win probability
Denver Nuggets
- Previous game52%DEN win probability
- Next game51%NOP win probability
Other games on Nov 11, 2026
- 60%NYK win probability
- 84%TOR win probability
- 72%WSH win probability
- 57%NOP win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Grizzlies has a 81% win probability, while Nuggets has a 19% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at FedExForum in Memphis, TN.