Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans
Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans head-to-head
New Orleans Pelicans 51% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Pelicans:
- Offensive Efficiency. Pelicans offense (124.7 PPG) outpaces Nuggets (112.5 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Pelicans are 1-1 at home this season; Nuggets are 2-2 on the road
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: NOP 32% (−19)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: NOP 70% (+19)
- If the rating edge were neutral: NOP 56% (+5)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: NOP 47% (−4)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Nuggets at Pelicans
The Nuggets visit the Pelicans at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, LA in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Pelicans a 51% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Nuggets to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Pelicans (high): Pelicans offense (124.7 PPG) outpaces Nuggets (112.5 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Nuggets (high): Nuggets defense (115.5 Opp PPG) better than Pelicans (128.0 Opp PPG)
- ELO Rating favors the Nuggets (low): Pelicans ELO 1432 vs Nuggets ELO 1549 (diff: -118)
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors New Orleans Pelicans
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Denver Nuggets
- ELO RatingFavors Denver Nuggets
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New Orleans Pelicans
- Rest DaysNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Pelicans offense (124.7 PPG) outpaces Nuggets (112.5 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Nuggets defense (115.5 Opp PPG) better than Pelicans (128.0 Opp PPG)
Turnover Differential
Pelicans turnover differential (+0) vs Nuggets (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Nuggets
Pelicans
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
New Orleans Pelicans
- Previous game52%DEN win probability
- Next game60%NOP win probability
Denver Nuggets
- Previous game52%DEN win probability
- Next game88%DEN win probability
Other games on Nov 14, 2026
- 71%CLE win probability
- 85%MEM win probability
- 87%MIN win probability
- 84%DET win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Pelicans has a 51% win probability, while Nuggets has a 49% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, LA.