Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns head-to-head
Denver Nuggets 88% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Nuggets:
- Defensive Efficiency. Nuggets defense (115.5 Opp PPG) better than Suns (123.0 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Nuggets offense (112.5 PPG) outpaces Suns (107.0 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Nuggets are 2-1 at home this season; Suns are 0-4 on the road
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: DEN 77% (−11)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: DEN 78% (−10)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DEN 84% (−4)
- If the rating edge were neutral: DEN 87% (−1)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Suns at Nuggets
The Suns visit the Nuggets at Ball Arena in Denver, CO in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Nuggets a 88% chance of winning, signaling a strong lean in this matchup. For the Suns to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Nuggets (high): Nuggets defense (115.5 Opp PPG) better than Suns (123.0 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Nuggets (high): Nuggets offense (112.5 PPG) outpaces Suns (107.0 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Nuggets (high): Nuggets are 2-1 at home this season; Suns are 0-4 on the road
is strongly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Denver Nuggets
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Denver Nuggets
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Denver Nuggets
- ELO RatingFavors Denver Nuggets
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Nuggets defense (115.5 Opp PPG) better than Suns (123.0 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Nuggets offense (112.5 PPG) outpaces Suns (107.0 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Nuggets turnover differential (+0) vs Suns (+0)
1 factor
Home Field Advantage
Nuggets are 2-1 at home this season; Suns are 0-4 on the road
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Suns
Nuggets
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Denver Nuggets
- Previous game52%DEN win probability
- Next game51%BOS win probability
Phoenix Suns
- Previous game62%GSW win probability
- Next game53%PHX win probability
Other games on Nov 16, 2026
- 77%CLE win probability
- 81%BOS win probability
- 64%MEM win probability
- 78%PHI win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Nuggets has a 88% win probability, while Suns has a 12% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Ball Arena in Denver, CO.